Institutions love their Bitcoin! Large holders now control a huge share of supply, U.S. banks are rolling out more Bitcoin-linked products, and demand hasn’t disappeared.
Yet prices have slipped, because leverage broke first.
The big hands holding up Bitcoin
Source: Glassnode
Institutional holders now control roughly 5.94 million Bitcoin [BTC] (close to 30% of the circulating supply). The holding is spread across exchanges, ETFs, public companies, and government treasuries.
Long-term balances are rising, while exchange-held BTC has stagnated. This means reduced sell-side pressure over time.
Source: River
Meanwhile, Wall Street doesn’t want to miss out.
According to River, 14 of the top 25 U.S. banks are now building or exploring Bitcoin products, from trading desks to custody services. These are largely aimed at high-net-worth clients.
The infrastructure is being built before the next demand phase arrives.
When leverage breaks, price follows
The accumulation makes the latest dip easier to misread.
The sell-off was led by leverage snapping in the Futures market. As the chart shows, every sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price lines up with spikes in long liquidations across exchanges.
Source: CryptoQuant
In recent weeks, traders piled into highly leveraged long positions, betting on more upside. When prices slipped below key levels, those positions were automatically closed.
This caused forced market sell orders. This kind of selling snowballs fast, with one liquidation pushing price lower, setting off the next.
On the long-term 2Y SMA Multiplier chart from Alphractal, BTC is dangerously close to its two-year SMA, at near $82,800. This level has mattered in every cycle.
Source: Alphractal
Monthly closes below the 2Y SMA have so far coincided with long bear phases, while holding or reclaiming it has helped reset the market after excess. It acts like a regime marker.
As the end of the year comes to a close, holding above this line keeps the long-term structure intact. Slipping below it would mean more pressure ahead.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 30% of Bitcoin’s supply is now owned by institutions.
Recent price weakness came from leverage liquidations. $82,800 (2Y SMA) is now the key line to watch.
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