- SUI was down nearly 21% since its early May peak, with bulls repeatedly failing to establish support.
- The recent 44 million token unlock could go one of the two ways.
Sui [SUI] started off June with its usual token unlock, dropping 44 million tokens, amounting to 2% of the total supply, into the market.
Naturally, this raises the question: How well is the market handling all the new supply? From a technical perspective, the timing is rough.
After peaking at $4.15 in early May (finally breaking out after four months stuck below), SUI has slid nearly 21%. Even Bitcoin [BTC] hitting fresh all-time highs couldn’t spark a meaningful bounce.
What’s even more telling? Every time the bulls have tried to push back, they’ve been slapped down. Three attempts to build a solid support base have all failed. It’s clear the bears are running the show now.
Source: TradingView (SUI/USDT)
With price action this choppy, the recent 44 million SUI unlock could go one of two ways. If strong bid-side demand kicks in, we could see shorts get caught wrong-footed and a juicy short squeeze unfold.
But if that demand doesn’t show up? A deeper retracement is definitely on the cards. And with support looking shaky at best, a slip below the $3 mark isn’t out of the question.
SUI’s on-chain activity signals a growing split
According to data from CryptoQuant, SUI’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD just flipped green for the first time since last year’s “Trump Pump.”
It is the same surge that catapulted SUI to its all-time high of $5.36 back in January.
A green CVD is a sign of genuine buying pressure returning to the spot market after a long dry spell, signaling that investors are starting to accumulate SUI once again.
Source: CryptoQuant
But the plot thickens — Since the 22nd of May, SUI’s Futures Taker CVD has remained stubbornly red, reflecting persistent selling pressure as shorts bet on further downside.
This divergence creates a classic bullish setup. Spot bulls are accumulating while Futures shorts have been piling in, priming the market for a potential short squeeze.
Notably, the recent 44 million token unlock appears to have reestablished meaningful bid support.
If demand sustains, SUI could soon test resistance near $3.50, paving the way for a push toward $4 in the near term.
