48 hours to the midterms – Can XRP repeat its 280% post-election rally?

Less than 48 hours remain before the U.S. midterm elections.

This is the first big election to follow the 2024 presidential elections that sent the crypto market into a frenzy after pro-crypto Donald Trump won.

But now that the odds of a Democratic sweep of the midterms are over 73%, it brings up the question whether crypto will do the same if the Republicans fall short.

The stakes are higher for Ripple. As the chart below shows, XRP had the most explosive rally of the post-election period in 2024. It rose over 280% in November. The key takeaway? November has historically been XRP’s strongest month, with average returns above 80%.

That naturally puts Ripple [XRP] under the spotlight ahead of the upcoming elections.

Interestingly, XRPL is exhibiting a balanced picture on-chain, as the number of transactions is currently hovering around 3.29 million, while the volume of transactions is sitting at just under $2.32 billion. Active addresses are also an important metric to monitor. While transactions are being processed, the adoption of users needs to increase.

In essence, Ripple has been relatively quiet on-chain. This raises a key question: Can XRP’s ongoing supply squeeze provide enough bullish pressure to fuel a breakout, even as on-chain demand remains subdued?

XRP escrow unlock meets rising ETF inflows

Ripple kicked off November with its scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock.

However, shortly after, 700 million were re-locked, meaning that the net amount being released is actually 300 million. It’s common for a large amount of tokens to be locked back into escrow each month. In the past year, Ripple has unlocked 12 billion XRP but has also locked 8.4 billion.

This means that the real amount of supply coming into the market is far smaller than the 1 billion figure.

As can be seen in the post below, Ripple has placed 700 million XRP back in escrow through three transactions. Simply put, this means that these tokens cannot be released into the market immediately.

After the 1 billion XRP was unlocked, there are now just 300 million XRP available outside of escrow. This means less supply pressure.

Against this backdrop, XRP’s on-chain signals start to matter.

According to SoSoValue, ETFs have so far seen an impressive increase of $4.32 million in weekly inflows, surpassing last week’s $4.25 million, with the best weekly inflows since mid-September.

Combined with recent whale activity, the fact that XRP has been able to stay above $1.20 suggests it could be in an early accumulation phase.

With the midterm elections approaching, this setup puts XRP on the watchlist for a potential post-election rally, provided broader market sentiment turns bullish.

Final Summary

• Ripple locked 700 million of the 1 billion unlocked XRP back into escrow. In turn, leaving only 300 million in net new supply.

• XRP ETFs saw $4.32 million in weekly inflows, beating last week’s $4.25 million as XRP held above $1.20, hinting at growing buying interest ahead of the midterms.