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9.5M AVAX tokens ready for unlock – Gauging the effect on prices

2min Read

If historical price action is anything to go by, investors will likely interpret the unlock as a bullish catalyst.

9.5M AVAX tokens ready for unlock - Gauging the effects on prices

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  • The unlock amount represented 2.6% of AVAX’s total circulating supply. 
  • AVAX whales have been steadily stockpiling in recent weeks.

Avalanche [AVAX], the ninth-largest cryptocurrency, was gearing up for its upcoming token unlock. Analyses and projections about the coin’s behavior following the crucial event have picked up pace.

Bullish or bearish?

As per AMBCrypto’s scrutiny of Token Unlocks’ data, about 9.54 million AVAX tokens, or 2.6% of the total supply, would be pushed into circulation on the 22nd of February.

Token unlocks mean a staggered unfreezing of a fixed number of tokens at predetermined time intervals. These events have become a source of great interest in the market in recent years.

The dominant belief is that the price of the asset in question would go down as the market gets flooded with extra supply.

However, this wasn’t the case in the aftermath of the last unlock event on the 24th of November last year. In fact, there was no downward pressure at all, AMBCrypto’s examination of AVAX’s price chart revealed.

The crypto asset rose 5% in the first week after the unlock, and nearly 44% in two weeks. As of this writing, AVAX was exchanging hands at $40.2, having doubled from the unlock day.

AVAX's price chart

Source: CoinMarketCap

If historical price action was anything to go by, investors would likely interpret the upcoming unlock as a bullish catalyst.

Wealthy investors grab AVAX

AVAX whales have snapped more than 12 million tokens since the start of February until this writing, data showed. Their total holdings made up more than 85% of AVAX’s total supply.

AVAX whale holdings increase

Source: CoinMarketCap

Additionally, the supply held by long-term holders also increased in recent weeks. These findings lent credence to a broader market expectation of a bull rally in the days ahead.


How much are 1,10,100 AVAXs worth today?


Futures market provides a clue

Derivatives traders also poured money into the AVAX market, AMBCrypto’s analysis of Coinglass’ data showed.

The Open Interest (OI) in AVAX Futures rose 38% month-to-date, coinciding with the jump in spot prices.

AVAX Open Interest in futures market

Source: Coinglass

Moreover, long position traders dominated the market in the last ten days, as indicated by a Longs/Shorts ratio of greater than 1. These findings strengthened the idea of a bullish narrative for AVAX.

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Aniket Verma works as a journalist at AMBCrypto. Contrary to most who are primarily interested in merely tracking price movements of cryptos, his focus is on examining the niche intersection between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance. A so-so Bitcoin maximalist, Aniket has a strong disdain for memecoins and the unfounded frenzy they seem to generate every market season. Coming from a strong engineering background, Aniket previously worked as a Content Manager for TV9 Network. Before his stint over there, he was an Associate Multimedia News Producer at Reuters.
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