Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice
Ethereum, at press time, was approaching a critical moment on its chart. Over the past week, ETH has oscillated within its down-channel as sellers kept the price in check. However, buyers responded aggressively on the lower trendline as ETH climbed by nearly 10% in two days alone.
Maintaining this momentum, ETH seemed to eye a key breakout, one that would allow it to regain levels lost after the 7 September flash crash. At the time of writing, ETH was valued at $3,413, up by 2.7% from yesterday’s close.
Ethereum 4-hour Chart
Source: ETH/USD, TradingView
Ethereum’s down-channel was characterized by three lower highs and three lower lows. However, this trend would be disrupted if ETH shoots above the upper trendline. More specifically, a close above the previous swing high of $3,473 on strong volumes would lead to a northbound breakout. From the same, $3,564 would be achievable.
This outcome will allow for gradual recovery towards $4k after challenging the resistance around $3,840.
On the other hand, a failed breakout attempt would see ETH resume movement within its pattern. A fall under the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level would result in a lower low at the 78.6% Fibonacci level. From there, the market would be at the risk of a breakdown.
Reasoning
ETH’s indicators flashed a few interesting observations. For one, the RSI highlighted some bullish divergences after forming higher peaks as opposed to the price action. Moreover, the index managed to hike above 55 for the first time in eight tries, suggesting that the bulls have been making progress.
The Awesome Oscillator also pictured a favorable scenario. The index climbed above equilibrium on the back of a bullish twin peak setup. Conversely, the MACD sat in a bit of a disagreement with the RSI and AO. While the MACD did inch north, upwards pressure seemed to fall before the index rose above its half-line.
Conclusion
As Ethereum tested the upper boundary of its channel, there were chances of an upwards breakout. A favorable outcome would push the price towards $3,564, a level from where a comeback to $4k would become a reality. However, before the price breaks north from a bearish pattern, buying volume usually picks up across exchanges.
Such was not the case with ETH just yet after the 24-hour trading volumes contracted by 20%. If ETH fails to clear the $3,473-mark, expect the price to form a newer low at the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
