- BTC demand from retail declined to a three-year low despite the recent rally.
- Bearish sentiment on the derivative market could derail the recent recovery.
Bitcoin [BTC] has yet to attract retail demand, despite doubling from last year to a record high of $73K in March 2024.
In fact, according to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, BTC demand from the retail class has hit a three-year low.
Source: CryptoQuant
The metric tracks changes in BTC’s transfer volume for less than $10K over a 30-day period. It hit a 2024 low of about -20%, last seen in 2021.
Some market observers believe this meant that the retail class was sidelined and could delay the expected parabolic BTC run.
Based on the chart, the 2021 cycle high of $69K coincided with an uptick in BTC Retail Investor above 15%.
A similar pattern was printed during the early 2024 rally after BTC ETFs hit the market. Hence, the lack of retail interest was a painful concern for Bitcoin bulls expecting an explosive rally.
Could the expected late 2024 global easing and surge in liquidity drive back retail investors?
Perhaps, that could be a catalyst for retail, according to one market analyst, Coin Trader Nik.
Nik claimed that ETF drove the first half of 2024, but the second half will be induced by global liquidity.
‘The second half will be driven by global liquidity expansion. ‘Mass retail’ arrives when $BTC breaks $100k’
Source: X
Following a disinflationary trend in the past two months, over 90% of interest rate traders expected a September rate cut.
If the Fed begins cutting interest rates, this would fuel risk assets, including Bitcoin. Already, some central banks have initiated rate cuts, setting the stage for a global liquidity injection.
Given the above macro outlook, the market foresees a potential BTC upswing to $80K —$100K. Recent data from the prediction market projected odds of above 20% that BTC will hit $100K by the end of 2024.
The odds of crossing the $80K level were higher at 57%, further reinforcing BTC’s bullish outlook.
In fact, Quinn Thompson of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital projected a bold $100K per BTC by November 2024.
All the above bullish targets are pegged on Trump winning the US presidential elections.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
Meanwhile, BTC was up 11% on a weekly adjusted basis but traded below $64K as of press time.
The bearish sentiment on the derivatives market, as shown by the negative Taker Buy Sell Ratio, indicated that the recovery above $60K could stall further into the weekend.
Source: CryptoQuant
