- Toncoin is likely to fall closer to $5.
- The on-chain metrics gave a buy signal but conditions might be too risky to rely on them.
Toncoin [TON] maintained its bearish trajectory and fell below the $6 level as anticipated in an earlier report. The technical indicators showed strong selling pressure was prevalent. The Fibonacci retracement levels might help the bullish cause.
With Bitcoin [BTC] struggling near the $60k mark, the crypto market does not have a bullish outlook in the short term. A price bounce to hunt short liquidation levels might occur on Monday, and the downtrend might resume afterward.
The $5.8 and $5.36 levels under scrutiny
Source: TON/USDT on TradingView
The daily market structure was still bearish. There was a considerably large fair value gap around the $6.5 level. A price bounce to hunt liquidation levels could be rebuffed from this area.
The MACD has been trending downward throughout July and the CMF fell to a 4-month low. This showed extreme selling pressure and consistently bearish momentum for TON since the rejection at $7.7.
The 78.6% retracement level at $5.36 might be visited next week. Swing traders would be hopeful that the downtrend fades at that point and the market offers a buying opportunity.
Should traders wait for further price drops, or buy TON right away?
Source: Santiment
Despite the price drop of the past month, the mean coin age has trended higher. This was a sign of accumulation across the network.
Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio fell to lows not seen since early May. Short-term holders were at a deep loss and the token might be undervalued.
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The weighted social sentiment had been positive until recently, underlining belief. It presented a good case for traders to rely on the $5.86 support level, the 61.8% retracement level, but buying at these levels could be risky.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
