Dogecoin’s latest ‘hike’ – Identifying the odds of a real price rally next

• A surge on the social front might help DOGE’s price action
• Ownership stats underlined growth on some fronts too

Dogecoin kicked off Q1 2024 with a solid run, but it has since given up almost all of its year-to-date gains. This, despite this year proving to be in favor of the memecoin segment. In fact, the latest data indicates that social sentiment is starting to rally behind the king of the memecoins.

Social activity around Dogecoin has been rising, according to LunarCrush. The analysis puts its social metrics right up there with major coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. This means that DOGE proponents might be trying to drum up support around the memecoin.

The uptick in Dogecoin’s social metrics is timely, especially considering the cryptocurrency’s discounted levels from its YTD highs. For example – Its $0.097 press time price was at a 57.25% discount from its 2024 peak. Also, it has been restricted within a wedge pattern, with the same now approaching a pattern break zone too.

Source: TradingView

The confluence between price level and surging social sentiment suggests that Dogecoin might benefit from liquidity inflows. However, this does not necessarily guarantee a rally. In fact, the price may still extend its downside in case of further confidence erosion.

Assessing Dogecoin’s bullish confidence and holdings

On-chain assessment revealed a significant number of short positions within the current price range. There were over 2 million shorts in the last 24 hours as price slid from a weekly resistance near the $0.099-level.

Source: Hybock Capital

Despite the presence of shorts, however, net long positions were higher at the same level. The number of net longs peaked at $4.16 million at the same $0.099 level. This confirmed that the recent price lows have been attracting more bullish confidence.

Nevertheless, the presence of shorts still underscores the possibility that price could dip lower.

DOGE’s heavily discounted price over the last few months is likely to attract more accumulation. Additionally, Dogecoin’s ownership stats confirmed a surge in ownership activity in the last 4 weeks.

For example, whales held 64.47 billion DOGE (41.49%) on 5 August. Exactly one month later and the supply held by whales went up to 65.39 billion (41.73%).

Source: IntoTheBlock

Retail traders have also been accumulating. For example, they held 58.44 billion DOGE (37.7%) on 5 August. Their holdings have since grown to 59.24 billion (37.8%).

On the contrary, the investor class (institutions) slashed their holdings. Investors held 32.51 billion coins on 5 August, which dropped to 32.08 billion DOGE a month later.

These ownership stats confirmed that Dogecoin whales and retail have been accumulating, albeit moderately. It will be interesting to see how improving social sentiments will influence Dogecoin’s demand in the next few days and weeks.