Donald Trump’s ‘national crypto policy’ – Will U.S. hold a $20B Bitcoin Reserve?

• Trump reportedly aims to make crypto a ‘national policy.’
• Market expectations on U.S. strategic BTC reserve (SBR) soared amid recent reports. 

The crypto community is more hopeful about President-elect Donald Trump’s potential pro-crypto executive orders on the first day. Some include the potential ‘freezing’ of crypto lawsuits and Bitcoin[BTC] reserve (SBR). 

In fact, Polymarket’s odds of a U.S. SBR jumped to 44% on the 17th of January. This followed reports that the president would create a ‘national Bitcoin stockpile’ and make crypto a ‘national priority.’ 

Additionally, Bloomberg reported that the incoming administration could set up a crypto council to advance the sector’s policy and interests.

The reports stated that the orders could be issued on inauguration day on the 20th of January. Markets quickly reacted positively as SBR odds topped 44% for the first in January. However, the chances of the same slightly dropped to 41%, at press time. 

On another prediction site, Kalshi, the odds jumped to 64% for an SBR creation this year. 

Other Bitcoin bulls, such as crypto investor Fred Krueger, were also confident of a likely U.S. SBR by next week. 

That said, Polymarket odds have doubled in two weeks from a low of 22% to a recent peak of 44%. Over the same period, BTC has jumped from $90K to the $102K level, indicating the massive impact of SBR speculation on the asset’s price action. 

U.S. Senator comments…

In another development, pro-Bitcoin U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has questioned the U.S. Government’s plans for selling 70K BTC retrieved from Silk Road. Part of her letter to the U.S. Marshals Service read, 

“Based on historical sales data, the Service has sold approximately 195,092 Bitcoin between 2014 and 2023 for a total of approximately $366.6 million.

The letter went on to say,

At current market prices, these same Bitcoin would be worth over $18.9 billion, representing a loss of more than $18.5 billion in unrealized value for American taxpayers—a staggering 98% loss in potential value.” 

This is part of the BTC that the incoming administration had planned to use to set up the SBR. As of press time, Arkham data revealed that 69,000 Silk Road BTC coins were unmoved despite the recent approval for sale. 

Overall, the U.S. government still held 198K BTC, worth over $20B, and all these could be repurposed to an SBR if not sold before the new regime resumes office.