Now that Bitcoin’s halving is behind us, when does the real rally start?

• Bitcoin’s post-halving rally may continue into 2025, driven by whale accumulation and institutional interest.
• Short-term Bitcoin consolidation signals potential upside, with support at $83,000-$84,000 for further gains

With Bitcoin’s [BTC] latest halving now in the rearview mirror, attention is shifting toward what could be the most pivotal stretch of this market cycle.

Historically, halving events have set the stage for dramatic price rallies within 12 to 18 months, and 2025 is shaping up to be no exception.

Whales are quietly accumulating, institutional interest is gaining momentum, and analysts are projecting new highs on the horizon.

But beyond the historical playbook, a new set of variables is in play — regulatory shifts, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic uncertainty.

The question isn’t just if Bitcoin will rally, but how the forces shaping this cycle will redefine what a bull market looks like.

Is the peak already in?

Historically, Bitcoin’s most explosive gains have occurred 12 to 18 months after a halving event.

Each past cycle saw substantial price appreciation well after the halving, culminating in peaks that came long after the initial post-halving hype had cooled.

With the most recent halving now behind us, this timeline places a potential market top sometime between mid and late 2025.

Source: IntoTheBlock

While it’s tempting to ask if the peak is already in, historical precedent suggests otherwise.

Though institutional inflows and ongoing regulatory developments may alter the shape of this cycle, the odds favor more runway ahead.

For now, the data implies the current bull market may still be warming up and not winding down.

Whale accumulation suggests more upside ahead

Supporting the case for a continued bull run is the behavior of Bitcoin’s largest holders.

Over the past week alone, whales have accumulated more than 60,000 BTC, a strong vote of confidence that aligns with historical post-halving trends.

Latest data shows a sharp uptick in total whale holdings — now above 3.45 million BTC — as well as a notable positive swing in the 30-day percentage change.

Source: X

This surge in accumulation typically signals a bullish outlook from long-term investors, who tend to front-run major price moves.

When paired with the post-halving historical window that points to mid-late 2025 for a cycle top, this renewed whale activity adds fuel to the thesis that Bitcoin’s current rally still has room to run.

Short-term consolidation, but momentum may return

Despite bullish longer-term signals, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remained mixed. The daily chart showed BTC hovering around the $84,000 level following a pullback from recent highs.

The RSI was at 44.20, suggesting weak momentum and leaving room for further downside before the asset becomes oversold. Meanwhile, OBV has been trending downward, reflecting declining buying pressure.

Source: TradingView

Still, price action appears to be stabilizing after a stretch of sharp losses, hinting at potential consolidation before the next move.

If bulls manage to defend the $83,000-$84,000 support zone, BTC could attempt a push toward $88,000 in the near term. However, failure to hold current levels might open the door for a retest of $80,000.