Bitcoin faces critical $112K test – Will 2 factors propel BTC higher?

• Bitcoin whale inflows surged by 1,363% in seven days, while outflows dropped 61.63%.
• The NVT Ratio declined 11.48% as the Stock-to-Flow Ratio climbed 33.34%, indicating a bullish divergence.

Bitcoin [BTC] has pushed above its 365-day MVRV Moving Average (SMA365), currently at 2.36—a historically pivotal level.

This threshold has often acted as a trigger point for significant upside moves, as seen in late April, when BTC surged from $94K to $111K after a similar breakout. 

This shift suggests long-term holders are now in a profitable zone, fueling renewed optimism. 

BTC was trading at $108,864 at press time, down just 0.80% on the day. However, staying above the SMA365 could mark the start of a broader bullish phase—if buyers hold the line.

BTC NVT ratio drops -11.48%

On-chain valuation metrics painted a complex picture.

The NVT ratio dropped by -11.48% to 31.43, signaling that transaction volume is growing faster than market cap, often a bullish sign of rising utility. 

In contrast, the Stock-to-Flow ratio surged by +33.34%, indicating that Bitcoin’s supply is tightening. 

This divergence suggests strong demand-side growth coinciding with decreasing supply availability. 

Whale activity has shifted dramatically in favor of accumulation.

Weekly Large Holder Inflows soared +1,363%, while outflows fell -61.63%. Over 30 days, inflows jumped a massive +4,112%, confirming consistent, non-speculative accumulation.

This imbalance between incoming and outgoing volume implies a deliberate accumulation strategy rather than short-term speculation. 

$104K–$107K long cluster and $110K–$113K short risk

Liquidation data from Binance showed a dense cluster of long liquidations between $104K and $107K. Conversely, heavy short liquidations lie just above current price levels, concentrated between $110K and $113K. 

With BTC now trading around $108.8K, it finds itself in a pressure zone. Any sharp movement could cascade into forced liquidations on either side. 

However, with buyers maintaining momentum, a break above $110K could ignite a wave of short squeezes. 

Retail trader sentiment remains bearish despite improving metrics.

CoinGlass data showed 57.46% of traders were short, pushing the Long/Short Ratio to just 0.74. If price breaks higher, this crowding could backfire hard.

Stochastic RSI dips to 16.03

Technically, BTC remains in an uptrend but is consolidating beneath the key $112K resistance level. 

The Stochastic RSI is now deeply oversold, with values at 16.03 and 17.08—typically a precursor to an upward reversal. 

Meanwhile, the 9/21 MA crossover continues to support bullish continuation as long as price stays above $106K. However, volume and momentum have slowed, suggesting the market awaits a catalyst. 

Therefore, traders should watch for a strong breakout or rejection at $112K, which could define BTC’s short-term direction.

Will the breakout hold?

BTC’s breakout above its 365-day MVRV average, along with rising whale inflows and a falling NVT ratio, points to strengthening bullish undercurrents. 

However, the presence of dense liquidation zones and bearish retail sentiment introduces significant volatility. 

If BTC pushes above $110K with volume, short liquidations could fuel a breakout toward $113K–$115K. 

Otherwise, a rejection near current levels might trigger a retest of $104K–$107K. For now, metrics suggest the bias favors the upside—but momentum must confirm it.