Bitcoin faces a pivotal test. At the time of writing, 3.75% of the supply sat at a $116,963 cost basis. If this key level breaks, is a $110k retest on the horizon?
On 16 August, $3 billion+ in realized gains hit the market, sparking the largest profit-taking spike of the month. Bitcoin responded with a 1.9% intraday dip to $114,707, kicking the week off in the red.
Sure, we’re barely a week past the ATH. So, calling it a top is premature. However, is $114k shaping up as a “strong” accumulation zone? Compared to $110k, it still sits above the key support cluster, leaving room for a deeper retest.
Source: Glassnode
On-chain, $116,963 is Bitcoin’s largest cost-basis cluster, holding 700k+ BTC (3.61% of supply) – Making it a major supply zone that could act as resistance or anchor a pullback.
In simple terms, $114k might attract some buying. However, with a heavy supply cluster near breakeven, the risk of a margin squeeze might be rising. $110k looks like the more probable liquidity grab zone before fresh buying kicks in.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score flipped orange for the first time this month, tumbling from 0.57 to 0.20 in under a week. It underlined a clear slowdown in HODLer stacking, even at discounted levels.
Market caution keeps Bitcoin FOMO on ice
With HODLer pressure building and FOMO cooling off, the market has been leaning ask-heavy, with supply calling the shots on the price action.
That means Bitcoin’s nearly 8% pullback from its ATH isn’t random. Bid-side support is fading, creating a clear order-flow imbalance. In turn, it sets the stage for potential liquidity hunts at lower levels.
Macro cues are syncing up too. For example – On Polymarket, 25 September bps rate-cut odds dropped from 80%+ to 73%, while no-change contracts surged from 12% to 26% in just a week.
Source: Polymarket
This divergence matters.
It backs AMBCrypto’s view of a likely $110k retest (or lower), one where FOMO could finally re-engage and drive the next bull leg. This would leave the $114k–$115k zone looking like a weak support for now.
The logic’s simple – The market was pricing in a Q4 rally based on monetary easing. However, with that tailwind fading, FOMO’s on pause, reinforcing Bitcoin’s current spot a less attractive entry for buyers.
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