Decoding Bitcoin’s $115K struggle – TWO factors holding BTC back

Key Takeaways

What does Bitcoin’s declining Taker Buy Volume suggest?

It signals weak demand and increased caution among buyers, risking a trend reversal.

Which groups are driving the selling pressure on Bitcoin?

Sharks and retail traders are leading the sell-offs, adding to market weakness.

Since staging a comeback four days ago, Bitcoin [BTC] has shown a promising upward movement, reaching a weekly high of $114,800. 

In fact, at the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $113,541, after moderately rising by 1.16% over the past 24 hours. 

Despite the recent market recovery, Bitcoin still shows considerable weakness on the demand side. 

Bitcoin’s Taker Buy Volume hits 2024 lows

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Taker Buy Volume has dipped for ten consecutive months, reaching the lowest levels seen in early 2024. 

A sustained decline like this typically signals weak demand and growing caution among buyers. The drop is especially pronounced on Binance, highlighting traders’ lack of confidence and mounting selling pressure.

Selling activity has notably increased. According to Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s SOPR has consistently failed to break above 1.

When SOPR rises above 1, breakeven holders become profitable, often triggering profit-taking and amplifying selling pressure.

With sellers active in the market while there is low buying pressure, the current trend reversal is at risk. 

Historically, such a significant drop in buyers’ dominance has preceded a shift in market momentum. Thus, BTC risks a drop or entering into another prolonged consolidation. 

Who is selling, though?

Notably, AMBCrypto noted that the rising selling pressure is primarily arising from sharks and retail traders.

While Whales and Mega Whales have recently recorded more outflows than inflows, sharks have sold more. 

According to Checkonchain, the Sharks to Exchange Balance Change has remained positive despite a decline in the overall market. 

At press time, this cohort’s Exchange Balance Change was 109k BTC, indicating more exchange deposits than withdrawals. 

Also, retail traders have exhibited a similar market behavior. According to Checkonchain, Retail Holder’s Balance Change has remained largely negative throughout September. 

At press time, wallet cohorts showed notable outflows: Fish Balance Change was -7.9K BTC, Crabs -3.9K BTC, and Shrimps -1.7K BTC.

Historically, sustained selling from these groups has signaled mounting downward pressure—often acting as a precursor to further price declines.

What’s next for BTC?

According to AMBCrypto, Bitcoin is facing two key warning signs: buyers are pulling back, while sellers are growing more aggressive.

This dynamic places BTC at a critical juncture—either a sharp decline or extended sideways movement could follow. If selling pressure intensifies, Bitcoin may erase recent gains and fall toward $111,054.

However, if current conditions persist, BTC could remain range-bound between $111K and $114K for an extended period.

To break out of this range and confirm a sustained uptrend, buyers must push BTC above $114K and secure a close near $115K.