Bitcoin: Long-term holders dump, retail loads up – Who wins in BTC’s next move?

Key Takeaways

What does BCMI at 0.5 mean for Bitcoin?

It shows the market cooling mid-cycle, not collapsing—suggesting valuation equilibrium before the next expansion leg.

Are traders preparing for a rebound?

Yes. Retail added $435 million BTC as whales sold 28K BTC, hinting at faith in recovery momentum near $111K resistance.

Bitcoin [BTC] has failed to close above the $111,000 threshold since the 15th of October, as prices continued to oscillate below that level.

Market data indicated that a potential recovery was still in sight. However, deep selling pressure from long-term holders could weigh on any rebound.

Bitcoin primed for a rally?

The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) from CryptoQuant showed that while Bitcoin’s price weakened, its structural setup remained intact.

For the uninitated, the BCMI aggregates Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to capture valuation, profit-taking, and sentiment.

At press time, the BCMI reading stood at 0.5, indicating that Bitcoin was in a neutral zone, also known as the mid-cycle equilibrium.

Historically, a retest of this range (0.45–0.5) has preceded major expansions, where prices climbed as on-chain conditions reset.

That pattern suggests Bitcoin may be in a cooling phase before momentum rebuilds, potentially setting the stage for another push toward the $111,000 level.

However, long-term holders appeared to be resisting that recovery trend.

Long-term holders continue selling

Glassnode data confirmed that long-term holders have been distributing BTC steadily. Since the 15th of October, when Bitcoin last closed above $111,000, this cohort’s Total Supply dropped by around 28,000 BTC.

Moreover, data showed a notable spike in selling activity. Average daily sales by long-term holders have increased from 12,500 BTC in July to 22,500 BTC per day in October.

This growing distribution trend, paired with weaker conviction among profit-holders, increased the pressure on short-term sentiment.

CryptoQuant data showed that Unrealized Losses totaled about $6.95 billion, signaling that several traders may still exit positions before a stronger rebound.

Even so, retail accumulation has begun to offset some of that distribution.

Retail investors counterbalance

CoinGlass data showed retail traders have been net buyers since the 20th of October, purchasing roughly $435 million worth of BTC within 48 hours—their largest inflow since the 10th of October.

At press time, this group acquired an additional $20 million worth of Bitcoin, highlighting their confidence in the asset.

Sustained accumulation at this level could help counter bearish pressure from long-term holders and support Bitcoin’s momentum toward a new rally.