Broader crypto market weakness revisits Q1 2025 lows – Is a rebound near?
The market was priced a 67% chance of another 25 bps Fed rate cut
Key Takeaways
What’s driving current weakness?
Macro uncertainty and tech-market rout that had spilled over BTC and crypto.
What are analysts’ projections?
QCP Capital projected that risk assets, including crypto, would rally into year-end, citing Federal Reserve rate cuts.
On the 11th of November, Bitcoin [BTC] gave back early-week recovery gains after facing price rejection at $107.5k, following a broader tech-driven market rout and macro uncertainty.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.25% on the 12th of November. Lately, BTC has been trading as a Nasdaq beta with a strong positive correlation.
As such, the rest of the altcoin market also mirrored BTC’s price dip.
Overall, the crypto market sentiment remained at “extreme fear” levels, with low readings in the 20-30 range since the 4th of November. This was a similar weak reading to that seen in Q1 2025, before a bottom was formed.
Is a recovery possible?
As of writing, BTC was back again at $105k, with mixed results across the board.
Large caps like Binance coin [BNB] were trading below $1000 while Solana [SOL] struggled to stay above $160 at press time.
According to the crypto trading desk, QCP Capital, the potential end to the U.S. government shutdown has cleared the near-term risk.
However, potential caution from the Fed ahead of the December rate decision would influence the markets. The firm added,
“Private data like ADP and the NFIB Index now carry extra weight amid the data blackout, both pointing to softer labour conditions and cautious business sentiment. For the Fed, this reinforces the ‘easing with caution’ narrative heading into the Dec FOMC (Dec 9–10).”
As of press time, the market was pricing a 36% chance the Fed would keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. In contrast, 63% were betting for another 25 bps cut.
QCP projected that a potential rate cut and resilient corporate earnings could “support risk sentiment and BTC into year-end.”
That said, ETF inflows have also been mixed lately, further keeping BTC in a choppy zone.
Even so, reclaiming $107K and the H2 price range could reinforce the bullish structure for BTC on the price chart.
For ETH, surging above $3,700 and eventually reaching the November high of $3,900 would reinforce hopes of recovery.
