Why the Crypto Bill could stall before 2026 U.S. midterm elections
Will expectation for crypto bill passage drop as U.S 2026 elections beckons?
The path for passage of the Crypto Market Structure Bill could face hiccups ahead of the U.S. 2026 midterm elections.
Reacting to the latest postponement of the bill’s markup to January, Scott Johnsson, General Partner at crypto venture capital firm Van Buren Capital, warned,
“Increasingly think Dems have every incentive to draw this process out until the last moment (maybe late Q1) and then drop the veil.”
According to him, the Senate Democrats could intentionally drag negotiations either to late Q1 or past midterms to show ‘good-faith’ to crypto lobbyists and avoid angering banks or party leadership.
He added that if the delay extends beyond midterms, it could put the sector’s main policy goal in an ‘unenviable position,’ as Democrats could renege if pressed hard.
“On the flip side, if this gets punted past midterms, industry is in the unenviable position of (1) knowing that Senate Dems are at least 5:1 against market structure.”
Crypto bill’s key contentious
On the 17th of December, some crypto leaders, including Coinbase executives, held a bipartisan meeting with the Senate Banking Committee, led by Chair and Republican Senator Tim Scott.
The meeting’s agenda was to keep track of the bill’s momentum after the delayed December markup. According to journalist Eleanor Terrett, the meeting struck a ‘cautiously optimistic’ tone on the bill’s overall progress, citing insiders and attendees’ insights.
So far, the key contentious issues on the bill include DeFi oversight, stablecoin rewards, and ethics related to President Donald Trump’s family’s crypto interests.
Already, traditional players like Citadel Securities are pushing for DeFi regulation ahead of the tokenization boom. In contrast, the crypto industry seeks exemption for DeFi platforms.
Stablecoin rewards have also faced strong opposition from traditional banks since August. In fact, the banking lobby has been pushing for the blocking of the stablecoin interest loophole via the market structure bill.
Will the bill survive the 2026 elections?
The banking lobby now plans to spend over $100 million to elect pro-bank candidates, aiming to counter the influence of crypto donations.
This would set the stage for a likely messy fight between the sectors ahead of the 2026 midterms, noted James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst.
“The 2026 meta — Citadel and the Banks fight back against crypto.”
That said, there are two versions of the market structure bill: the CLARITY Act, advanced from the House and Senate’s draft, known as the RFIA (Responsible Financial Innovation Act).
The RFIA is the one awaiting markup before heading to the Senate floor vote. Afterward, it will be merged or must be approved by the House before Trump can sign it into law.
Meanwhile, there was a 77% chance it would become law before 2027, despite concerns about the midterm election.
Final Thoughts
- A VC executive projected that Dems could stall the crypto bill to buy time or bolt out at the last minute.
- However, the odds of the bill’s passage in 2026 remained high at 77% despite election fears.
