Bitcoin to $2.9M by 2050? VanEck outlines bold base-case scenario

VanEck is in the news today after it made a bold Bitcoin price projection. According to VanEck, the crypto could rally by 32x from its press time price of $90k to $2.9 million per coin by 2050.

The asset manager’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, cited the likely adoption of BTC as a settlement currency and reserve asset for the ambitious target. He said, 

“Our Base case model has Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050, driven by its adoption as a settlement currency for 5-10% of global trade and a reserve asset comprising 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.”

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Power law flags similar bold BTC targets

VanEck’s bear case Bitcoin price projection was $130k while the bullish outlook was at $53.4 million.

Although massive, the targets were slightly closer to Michael Saylor’s $3-$49 million projection if BTC reached 7%-22% of global wealth. 

For her part, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood downgraded her 2030 BTC price target from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, citing stablecoin dominance. 

However, most interestingly, the Power Law model had a slight deviation from some of these targets. For the 2040 outlook, the model marked out $1.6 million as the bear case and $4.7 million as the base case.

On the contrary, for 2030, the model’s bullish target was $1.5 million and $500k for the base case scenario. This seemed to be in line with Wood’s outlook. 

Here, it’s worth noting that VanEck missed the 2025 price target. It had projected $180k, but BTC peaked at $126k and closed 2025 below $100k. 

Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook

Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts believe that BTC could rally 66% from its press time price of $90k to $150k in 2026, citing a potential tokenisation boom. Similarly, Coinbase analysts believe that a Q1 rebound is likely too.

Alas, prediction site Kalshi priced only a 14% chance of hitting such a target before June. Put differently, the market remains pessimistic about Bernstein’s aggressive target. 

Away from the mid-term and long-term price outlook, the near-term price action has been slightly fragile lately. According to Bitcoin trader and analyst, Skew, there is relatively little demand at $90k, especially from U.S Spot ETFs.

Its latest bounce has been driven by spot market dip buying, as shown by the rising CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator.

However,

“I think for a strong rally to occur, we need unquestionable demand off $90k.”

Final Thoughts

• VanEck projected a bold $2.9-$53.4 million price per BTC target by 2050, if the crypto is widely adopted as both a settlement currency and a reserve asset.
• In the short term, however, $90k should be defended for sustained recovery in the next few days.