OBV rises, price falls: Why TRUMP’s ‘buy’ signals may be misleading
TRUMP's rejections from the $3.6 resistance zone hinted at new local lows in the coming days.
The Official Trump [TRUMP] memecoin was down 95.4% from its all-time high. A recent AMBCrypto report highlighted the imbalance between $3.57 and $4.09 on the daily chart.
On Saturday, the 14th of February, TRUMP bounced into this supply zone, reaching $3.64. Since then, it has shed 7.14% and was trading at $3.38 at the time of writing.
It appeared likely that the price would continue its descent below the $3 round-number support.
The 6.33 TRUMP token unlock can add to the selling pressure on the memecoin.
Trump-backed World Liberty Financial was facing an investigation into a $500 million foreign investment linked to the UAE, which did little to improve TRUMP’s optics.
Add to it the strong short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin [BTC], and it was clear that the Official Trump token prices were highly likely to continue their longer-term downtrend.
Gauging TRUMP’s reaction at the $3.6 supply zone
The daily imbalance and supply zone highlighted earlier saw an immediate rejection of TRUMP prices over the past three days.
Highlighted in white on the hourly chart above, the TRUMP structure has shifted bearishly after this rejection. Using a set of Fibonacci retracement and extension levels illustrated the path ahead in the coming days.
The second rejection from $3.58, the 78.6% retracement level (cyan), meant that the southward extension levels down to $3.07 were the immediate targets.
The OBV on the 1-hour timeframe was not bearish. In fact, it has been trending higher over the past week, though it saw a dip over the past two days.
Meanwhile, the RSI’s descent below neutral 50 hinted at a momentum shift.
Traders shouldn’t be fooled by the OBV’s movement over the past week. The higher timeframe bias remained firmly bearish.
Moreover, the short-term price structure made it highly likely that the memecoin will fall to $3.29 and all the way to $3.07 in the coming days.
Final Summary
- TRUMP token prices bounced to $3.64 last week. It surpassed the $3.58 local highs and the OBV that was trending higher on the 1-hour timeframe.
- Traders and investors should not be fooled by this seeming influx of buying pressure and remember that the long and short-term bias remained bearish.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
