Can Ethereum keep beating Bitcoin in Q3? Tom Lee’s ETH thesis under pressure

Tom Lee’s Ethereum conviction heading into Q3 is starting to look like a well-timed move.

For context, BitMine Immersion recently added another 42,197 ETH, taking its holdings to more than 5.74 million ETH.

On the other hand, Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 3,588 BTC, setting up an interesting ETH vs. BTC treasury debate as Q3 gets underway.

Notably, this debate isn’t just playing out on social media. 

As the chart below shows, the ETH/BTC ratio has opened Q3 with a nearly 5% rally after three straight losing quarters. That suggests ETH is beginning to regain relative strength against BTC, supporting Tom Lee’s decision to keep accumulating Ethereum. 

However, Tom Lee’s conviction isn’t based on hope alone. 

In a recent post on X, BitMine said the improving odds of the CLARITY Act are the main reason behind its growing ETH position.

According to the company, prediction markets now put the odds of the CLARITY Act passing at around 50%, the highest level in two weeks. BitMine argues that regulatory clarity would be a major catalyst for Ethereum, as smart contract platforms become more integrated into everyday finance.

So, from BitMine’s perspective, the recent rise in the ETH/BTC ratio simply reflects the market assigning a higher probability to the CLARITY Act becoming law.

Naturally, the bigger question now is whether that repricing has further to run. Can ETH continue outperforming BTC through the rest of Q3, or is BMNR’s bullish Ethereum [ETH] thesis getting ahead of the fundamentals?

Can Ethereum stay ahead as Bitcoin regains momentum? 

BitMine’s ETH accumulation is built around Ethereum’s long-term DeFi story. 

But the on-chain data suggests that the narrative hasn’t fully played out yet.

According to DeFiLlama, Ethereum’s DeFi activity remains well below previous highs. Total value locked (TVL) is still under $40 billion, compared with around $89-90 billion before the October correction.

At the same time, Ethereum has started Q3 with its stablecoin supply down by more than $5 billion from roughly $160 billion at the end of June.

In other words, the market is pricing in the CLARITY Act before Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals have caught up.

Adding to the challenge, BlackRock has resumed buying Bitcoin, recording more than $209 million in net inflows after 11 straight days of selling. The move signals renewed confidence in BTC at a time when ETH’s on-chain fundamentals are still lagging.

Against this backdrop, Tom Lee’s ETH thesis looks increasingly ambitious. 

Despite Strategy selling BTC, Bitcoin has continued to hold around $64k, suggesting BlackRock’s buying was enough to absorb the supply. That leaves the ETH vs. BTC treasury debate finely balanced, with Ethereum backed by policy optimism while Bitcoin continues to benefit from strong institutional demand. 

As a result, the edge still leans toward Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC has rallied on CLARITY “expectation”, but Ethereum’s on-chain activity hasn’t followed through. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is seeing fresh institutional inflows. Unless Ethereum’s DeFi metrics begin to recover, sustaining ETH/BTC’s early Q3 momentum could prove difficult.

Final Summary

• ETH/BTC is rallying on CLARITY Act optimism, but Ethereum’s DeFi activity hasn’t caught up yet.
• BlackRock is buying BTC again, giving Bitcoin stronger support and making it harder for ETH/BTC to keep outperforming in Q3.