Why analyst expects Bitcoin ETF will follow gold’s ‘triumph and pain’ pattern
Bitcoin stalled at $65K as oil price surged amid renewed U.S-Iran escalations
Bitcoin’s institutional demand will come back stronger, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The analyst noted that U.S. spot BTC ETFs could follow gold ETFs’ ‘triumph and pain’ pattern and would eventually surge to a new record high.
Gold ETFs were briefly the world’s largest ETF in 2011 but spent another eight years in a downtrend trying to reclaim the spot, added Balchunas.
It briefly reclaimed it again in 2024, and a similar ‘two steps forward, one step back’ could happen for BTC.
Bitcoin ETFs may be following the same script: spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors’ patience
Spot Bitcoin ETF still holding strong, but…The
Bitcoin price has dropped by nearly half from over $126K to $64K. In May and June 2026, the spot BTC ETF outflows hit $7B as the crypto asset briefly slipped below $60K.
Even so, only 10% of spot BTC ETF holders are left, compared to a third of gold ETF investors, Balchunas highlighted.
Another positive sign that BTC could show resilience and try to defend $60K support was the long-term holder (LTH) supply. Although they have slowly reduced exposure in the past few weeks, this cohort was not net sellers yet.
According to Bitfinex analysts, BTC’s recent dip below $60K was due to deleveraging and ETF outflows as LTH conviction was still intact. But the analysts warned,
Their 30-day net position stayed positive as ETFs shed nearly $4bn in June. Flows have now turned positive three straight sessions. The risk is LTHs finally flipping to net sellers.
That said, amid renewed U.S-Iran escalations, the two safe havens have not seen strong investor interest, as seen earlier in the year. In the past three months, gold ETFs recorded about $11B outflows while spot BTC ETFs bled $6B. In other words, gold bled twice as much as BTC.
It’s unclear whether BTC will attract more capital and behave like a hedge if the West Asia crisis escalations extend into Q3.
However, the rising oil price above $80 coincided with Bitcoin [BTC]’s sideways structure below $65K, signalling that energy market shocks could still derail the crypto’s upside.
Final Summary
- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas projected U.S. Spot BTC ETFs will surge to a record high, citing gold’s past patterns
- In the meantime, rising oil prices could cap BTC’s upside potential amid renewed West Asia escalations
