Fundstrat says Bitcoin could move 30% — But which way?

Bitcoin [BTC] has been quiet as of late, but the calm never lasts for long. As the market waits for its next sign, BTC could be getting ready for something bigger.

Is BTC set for a 30% move?

The first cryptocurrency has barely moved over the past few weeks, but that might change soon. Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, recently stated that BTC’s 30-day volatility is now close to some of the lowest levels ever.

In his research note to CNBC, he added that similar time periods have previously been a precursor for moves of around 30%.

That does not necessarily mean Bitcoin is ready to rally. In the past eight comparable periods identified by Fundstrat, Bitcoin moved up in four cases and lower in the other four.

So while we may not know what the outcome would be, we do know that there will be chaos.

Rising U.S. treasury yields could hurt BTC

Consider the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has been going up again after falling earlier in the year. These are their highest levels in months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still well below its late-2025 peak.

Higher bond yields can make risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive. This is because investors get better returns from relatively safer assets.

There could be breathing room, though

Farrell noted that if yields stay elevated for too long, they could eventually bring the end of BTC’s calm.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, in a separate interview with CNBC, stated that the U.S. 10-year yield has been in a fairly tight range. He added that slowing oil prices could help the state of things as well.

For Bitcoin, stable yields can reduce some of the pressure from harder financial conditions. If yields remain contained and oil prices stay subdued, BTC may have a more supportive backbone before its next move.

Final Summary

• Fundstrat has predicted a 30% BTC move; the direction remains uncertain.
• Rising U.S. Treasury yields could pressure BTC, but stability can help it surge.