CLARITY Act: Can White House push lift 15 September passage odds from 22%? 

The crypto industry is leaving nothing to chance for regulatory clarity for the sector following the recent White House meeting. 

During the Wednesday meeting, President Donald Trump met with crypto and finance CEOs on how to make America the crypto capital of the world. For Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, was the “big topic of discussion.”

He added, 

CLARITY Act is coming up for a full Senate floor vote on September 15th. It’s really important that it got scheduled amongst all competing priorities and there was a lot of energy in the room to get it to the finish line.

White House frames CLARITY Act as national security

Similarly, the Ripple CEO echoed a similar message, noting that “crypto isn’t a fringe industry,” citing rising ownership by U.S citizens. 

For his part, Patrick Witt, Executive Director, President Trump Council of Advisors on Digital Assets,  said, 

Now it’s time to pass the CLARITY Act to modernize our capital markets and ensure American financial leadership for decades to come.

The bill failed to progress during the early August window amid holdouts from Democrats and key Republicans citing ethics and DeFi developers protection provisions. 

Whether the sticky issues will be resolved and consensus built ahead of the mid-September vote remains unclear. 

Despite the uncertainty, Coinbase’s Armstrong is confident of a “strong bipartisan vote.” In fact, he projected that the bill’s passage will trigger the beginning of the next bull market run from October (“Uptober”). 

In contrast, the broader market outlook was completely different from Armstrong’s optimism. The passage odds before 2007 stood at 24% on prediction market Polymarket. 

In fact, bettors in Kalshi viewed the bill’s passage chances in 2027 as a coin flip (50/50).

That said, regulators (SEC and CFTC) are already publishing rules for the sector (some of which are contained in the CLARITY Act). 

Earlier this week, the SEC released fundraising guidelines for crypto firms. More rules are expected, meaning the sector can operate even if the CLARITY Act passage falters. 

The only problem is that another anti-crypto administration could reverse such guidelines if they are not codified into law by Congress. 

Interestingly, the industry is pursuing a three-pronged approach to maneuver this potential risk.

First, it’s pushing for the CLARITY Act’s passage by next month. Secondly, it’s opting for regulators’ guidelines as a backup plan if the bill stalls in the midterm.

Finally, the industry is supporting pro-crypto lawmakers to help pass the CLARITY Act again in the next Congress. It’s unclear if these bets will work in the industry’s favor. 

Final Summary

• Coinbase’s CEO is hopeful the CLARITY Act will get “strong bipartisan support” on September 15th 
• However, bettors doubted the bill’s progress in 2026 and were 50/50 for its pathway in 2027