Bitcoin moves closer to gold as Nasdaq correlation falls – Can BTC repeat 2020?

Bitcoin was changing hands at $77,576.35 at press time after a drop of 2.8% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, gold’s price was $4,455.43 per ounce after a drop of 3.37% in the past 24 hours.

This comes as a surprise, as both Bitcoin and gold are behaving more like two versions of the same “debasement hedge.”

Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a higher-beta version of gold, as investors view it as a scarce, digital hedge against inflation—thanks to its fixed supply of 21 million coins.

Recent data supports this shift: BTC’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from above 60% to around 33%.

However, Bitcoin remains more volatile, meaning it can rise more than gold when the debasement trade strengthens but also fall much harder when that trade reverses.

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold

Speaking on the same lines, Bitcoin wizard Adam Livingston highlighted that Bitcoin may be shifting from a high-risk technology asset toward “hard money” like gold.

BTC’s correlation with gold is at extreme historical levels—42-day: 99.7th percentile, 63-day: 99.96th percentile, and 90-day: 100th percentile—while its 63-day correlation with QQQ is only +0.318, suggesting BTC is moving more like a scarce monetary asset than tech stocks.

Livingston compared this with 2020, when a similar setup produced 68 matching trading days between 27th July and 27th November, 2020, followed by Bitcoin’s rise from roughly $10,000–$11,000 to nearly $69,000 by November 2021.

So when he said that “Bitcoin is setting up for a COVID-style blow-off bull run,” it was an interpretation, and not something correlation data can prove.

But is gold getting rugged?

The situation of gold, meanwhile, resembles a potential memecoin rug-pull scenario, with extreme token concentration and insider selling concerns.

According to Lookonchain data, a developer reportedly held 600 million in GOLD, while 15 newly created wallets spent $18,657 to buy 224.5 million in GOLD, together controlling around 82.45% of the total supply.

This controversy happened after an account followed by the U.S. President Donald Trump promoted $GOLD before reportedly deleting the posts. In fact, there were also reports that the account may have been compromised. This comes as Eric Trump recently denied rumors of a new Trump-family coin.

All this happens as AMBCrypto recently reported that Binance founder Changpeng Zhao [CZ] believes Bitcoin could overtake gold in the next bull cycle.

Final Summary

• BTC’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to around 33%.
• Bitcoin remains more volatile, meaning it can rise more than gold when the debasement trade strengthens.