Shiba Inu coin drops 20%, but will September trigger SHIB’s next rally?

Shiba Inu erased over 20% of its late August gains, but the pullback could be an opportunity if past trends repeat. 

Zooming out, the memecoin has been slowly recovering lost ground in H2 2026, as shown by the rising channel (purple). However, attempts to hold above the crucial 200-day moving average (MA, $0.0000069) failed.

This further underscored that a bullish breakout was still elusive. 

However,  the channel structure could continue if the broader crypto market extends its uptrend momentum. 

Surprisingly, there were bullish cues for the memecoin beneath the short-term uncertainty and slow grind. 

Will September favor Shiba Inu again?

First, cyclical patterns, especially at the early innings of a bull market, have always favored Shiba Inu and memecoins in general. 

In 2023, for example, the memecoin consolidated at $0.00000678 before exploding 70% to $0.000011 by mid-December. In the second leg of the rally in 2024, SHIB surged triple-digit (165%) to nearly 0.00003. 

During each period, the broader memecoin market posted gains of 78% and 713%, respectively. So far, the broader memecoin index, as tracked by VanEck’s MarketVector, has climbed 9% from recent lows.

If the historical patterns hold and memecoin mania explodes, SHIB could follow suit. 

On the Spot market demand front, the memecoin has been holding steady despite the broader sell-off in early 2026. This was illustrated by the rise and now flat supply outside of exchanges.

This meant that SHIB has seen a strong accumulation spree during the crypto winter.  

A similar ‘calm before a storm’ was seen before the explosive run in September-November 2024. That said, SHIB’s disinflation and burn program slowed down considerably in late August and early September. 

Nearly 100M SHIB tokens were incinerated in early August. The burn rate has since dropped to 1.8M tokens—a 98% decline. This was a stark contrast to the 350% increase in SHIB’s burn rate during July. 

Overall, September seems to be a great accumulation period if the pre-bull run market pattern repeats. But the burn rate dropped by 98% and needs to improve to bolster the bullish sentiment into Q4. 

But an extended rally could be confirmed if SHIB reclaims $0.000007, which doubled as the 50-week MA and key roadblock for rallies throughout 2026. 

Final Summary

• SHIB erased over 20% of its August gains, but September could be a springboard for a Q4 run if history repeats.
• SHIB burn rate has declined by 98% from 100M tokens to just 1.8M in the past 30 days.