Bitcoin defies Black Monday fears, shows signs of November 2024’s rally

Did the last 24 hours signal Bitcoin’s next bullish November rally?

Historically, November has been the most bullish month for Bitcoin, with average returns of more than 40%. This year, however, it might not be so simple.

With the U.S. midterm elections looming in early November, risky assets could see increased volatility. Moreover, Bitcoin has been range-bound around $80k for more than four weeks, and rising leverage could lead to sudden liquidations and a sharp liquidity crunch.

However, history does provide a bullish scenario. In November 2024, BTC rallied more than 30% after the U.S. presidential election, fueled by optimism about U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies.

Bitcoin’s resilience could lead to another November rally, but rising leverage and the uncertainty of the election could create a bull trap.

According to AMBCrypto, this is where the last 24 hours begin to make sense. 

The “Black Monday” narrative started circulating on social media as fears of an AI bubble and a possible US stock market crash mounted. With October 19 falling on the anniversary of the 1987 crash, fears of history repeating itself added to the panic.

Dow Jones fell 22.6% in a single day back then, causing the global markets to take a beating, with the Federal Reserve stepping in to shore up liquidity.

Bitcoin [BTC], however, held up. With BTC trading near a key support zone, fresh bearish pressure could have prompted a breakdown and a wave of liquidations.

Instead, BTC gained over 0.8% intraday and continued to consolidate. This relative strength puts Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) in focus, with the latest price action raising the possibility of another November rally.

Bitcoin defies market fear as investor greed returns  

In risky markets, capital tends to flow into altcoins in search of quick profits.

This trend is particularly intriguing in the context of Bitcoin’s resistance, as uncertainty can lead to a rotation into altcoins. However, at the moment, there is little evidence of this taking place.

In fact, investors seem to be betting on BTC as the long-term macro-hedge, rather than taking profits in short-dated altcoins. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is a useful metric for understanding this dynamic.

Technically, BTC.D is in the green intraday, pushing towards the 60.8% area. A clean break above 61% would mark its first move above this level since early May.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index has recovered by over 11% in the past 24 hours, staying in the greed zone despite the Black Monday FUD.

Given that BTC.D is testing resistance, and sentiment is recovering; a breakout above 61% is  highly likely.

In this context, Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of macro FUD may be an early sign of investors buying into a bullish November. If this trend continues, BTC could see a repeat of the November 2024-style post-election rally, with increasing BTC.D adding fuel to the bullish scenario.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin held firm despite Black Monday fears, while market sentiment returned to greed.

• BTC.D is nearing 61% resistance, with a breakout potentially setting up a November rally.