Bitcoin – Why Coinbase warns BTC could fall to $75K amid macro risks

Coinbase is cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s [BTC] near-term, flagging that the macro headwind could drag the crypto asset below $80K. 

In its weekly market review, Coinbase Senior Quantitative Strategist Colin Basco flagged sticky inflation and an 80% chance of a December Fed rate hike.

Basco said Bitcoin could still defend the $80K-$82K zone as support since it is a confluence of the 50-day Moving Average and ETF cost basis. At the same time, he warned, 

However, if this area fails, then we view $73-75K as the next area of support.

But Bitcoin’s challenges go beyond just inflation and macro fears.

Mid-term Bitcoin challenges 

According to Coinbase, Bitcoin treasury demand has faded in H2 2026, leaving U.S. spot ETFs to do the heavy lifting. 

But even the ETFs have seen significant fluctuations. On the 23rd of October, the complex saw $635 million in net outflows, marking one of the largest single-day outflows in H2 2026. The risk-off move rhymed with ongoing speculation that the U.S.-Iran escalations may be renewed at any time. 

Similarly, crypto market liquidity, as tracked by stablecoin supply change, is down by nearly $13 billion from its May peak. The Coinbase premium has also stayed negative in October, Coinbase’s Basco warned. 

In other words, crypto-native liquidity is not there, and U.S. retail investors, outside ETF buyers, are yet to come back in large numbers. Simply put, there is little buying pressure for BTC, and this was illustrated by the negative apparent demand. 

Add the macro (next week’s Fed rate decision) and geopolitical pressure (US-Iran tensions) to the fragile setup, and the $80K level increasingly seems at risk. 

Bitcoin market positioning in Q4

Besides, Coinbase noted that there was a heavy supply cluster of over 2.1M BTC sitting between $87.5K and $91.7K. This meant the zone could act as a roadblock to any reversal attempts. 

In the Options market, institutions were actively hedging against downside risk scenarios. This was illustrated by the 25-Delta Skew surging from 5% to 15% for the 1-day and 1-week tenors. It meant increased demand for downside protection or put buying, with $75K and $73K as the key levels of interest. 

Furthermore, there was short-term fear ahead of the Fed rate decision and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, which dragged the BTC price near $80K as of writing.

It’s worth pointing out that in the past three months,  the 25-Delta Skew only made a slight uptick from 6% to 10%. It implied a long-term calm, suggesting that institutional players viewed the macro and geopolitical fears as short-term rather than a prolonged negative impact. 

Final Summary

• Crypto liquidity has declined by nearly $13 billion since May, and treasury firms’ demand has faded.
• Coinbase warned that macro headwinds and the fragile demand setup could drag BTC below $80K.