Decoding Bitcoin’s midterm setup amid hawkish Fed risks

The next 48 hours could make or break Bitcoin’s November setup.

The FOMC meeting on the 28th of October could be a major turning point for BTC momentum for the remaining Q4. After BTC.D fell below 60%, and with Bitcoin falling below its key resistance of $80k, a retest of $75k is increasingly in play.

This potentially adds further downside pressure to crypto heading into November. Speaking to AMBCrypto ahead of the Fed meeting, Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, noted:

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting as it balances rising inflation with a weakening labor market. With September payrolls increasing by just 29,000, policymakers may prefer to wait before making another move. 

Therefore, for Bitcoin, the key question now is whether the Fed signals more rate hikes “ahead.”

The chart above shows that US inflation increased by 0.3% points to 3.7% in September, which is the highest rise since May 2026. This sticky inflation due to higher energy prices may hinder the Fed’s ability to cut rates.

As a result, Bitcoin could re-enter a bearish phase if officials hint that rates might remain higher for longer. 

However, what if the market has already factored in this hawkish approach from the Fed? Even if the Fed adopts a cautious approach, could BTC still rocket?

Understanding any potential signs that the market could be bottoming, therefore, is key to determining how Bitcoin [BTC] will perform heading into November.

Bitcoin eyes a bottom as Fed and PCE data loom

Key data suggests BTC could hold above $80k even if the Fed takes a hawkish stance or makes the door open for another rate hike in December. Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, highlighted the role of demand in sustaining Bitcoin’s recovery.

BTC previously rallied from $75k to $81k following the September 16 Fed meeting, despite market expectations pointing to a different reaction. However, around $774 million flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over October 22–23, making a recovery in spot demand crucial. If buyers step in and absorb selling pressure, BTC could defend $80k.

Notably, on-chain data is already supporting this thesis. The chart below shows that recent BTC holders have left the heavy sell zone. In late September, nearly all short-term holder supply was in profit. That figure has now cooled to around 70%, potentially easing profit-taking pressure.

Adding to this, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium has fallen to a new low since June 2026. Last time the market was at these levels, BTC bottomed out the following day and then rose 50%. On-chain data is also beginning to show signs of fatigue among sellers and is adding to the growing narrative of a post-midterm election rally.

Given these signs, it makes sense that Bitcoin is holding up at $80k despite the Fed news and PCE report. If BTC can defend this level, a post-election rally could gain traction. 

Final Summary