Ethereum loses 2024 gains – Is Vitalik Buterin rethinking ETH’s long-term value?

Ethereum’s [ETH] long-term investment case has been relatively weaker compared to Bitcoin.

On an annual basis, ETH has fallen nearly 30% this year, dragging its price down to $1.5k levels, and eliminating all the gains made throughout 2024 and 2025. What’s more, the altcoin is currently trading nearly 10% “lower” than it was at the start of 2024, highlighting its weak cycle-wide returns.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been much more resilient. After correcting 15% in 2026, BTC is still trading above 75% higher from its 2024 starting point, representing a much better long term ROI. The weakness extends into the ETH/BTC ratio, which is down over 16%, heading towards a fifth consecutive bearish annual candle. The ratio also trades around 60% below its 2024 opening level.

In essence, Bitcoin has maintained a clear lead in the long-term investment narrative.

According to AMBCrypto, this is where Vitalik Buterin’s recent X post comes into play. For years, Ethereum’s investment thesis has revolved around its deflationary model, lower gas fees, and token-burn mechanics. The idea was to strengthen ETH’s value proposition through reduced supply and increased network activity.

However, ETH’s continued underperformance relative to BTC raises questions about how well this supply-driven narrative is translating into price action. In this light, Buterin’s new SOV thesis may be an attempt to drive this change in investment thesis. By highlighting Ethereumas a “store of value,” Buterin might be trying to shift ETH’s investment thesis to that of being a long-term value asset.

Ethereum’s long-term holder thesis faces a reset

The reason behind Vitalik Buterin’s changing approach is becoming clearer from on-chain data.

According to on-chain data, ETH burns have declined by 98.8% from $3.548 billion in 2022 to just $42.8 million in 2026. This reduces how much of the Ethereum supply is being taken out of circulation, therefore undermining the deflationary narrative. This means the emphasis will shift to demand. Ethereum may derive more of its long-term value from becoming a collateral rather than from supply reduction through token burns.

Against this backdrop, recent whale activity adds another layer to ETH’s outlook. According to Onchain Lens, a large holder has withdrawn 16,580 ETH from Binance. However, whale accumulation might not be enough to compensate for a lack of staking demand. According to ValidatorQueue, the amount of ETH waiting to be staked has been on a downtrend since peaking at 4 million ETH in February.

This is where Buterin’s new store-of-value (SOV) narrative becomes important. 

With staking demand declining, Ethereum’s collateral use case could also come under pressure. As ETH acts as collateral for loans, DeFi positions and overall financial activity within the ecosystem, a continued decrease in demand to hold and use ETH as collateral could put downward pressure on its long-term utility.

From this perspective, Vitalik Buterin’s latest post could be a key moment in reshaping Ethereum’s long-term investment case against Bitcoin.

Final Summary

• Ethereum’s nearly 30% decline in 2026 and continued ETH/BTC weakness highlight its struggle to match Bitcoin’s long-term returns.
• Vitalik Buterin’s new SOV narrative shifts the focus from ETH burns to its demand as a long-term asset and collateral.