Addresses holding a fragment of Ethereum are selling: What’s next?

• ETH’s price action in the last few months has pushed some holders into selling.
• Other holders remain hopeful of a recovery.

Exactly five months ago, Ethereum [ETH] addresses holding 0.1 coins and a little above it, hit a new low. At that time, the addresses had decreased to 5,131,749. Five months later, the addresses reached another low at 5,132,429, Glassnode data disclosed.

? #Ethereum $ETH Number of Addresses Holding 0.1+ Coins just reached a 5-month low of 5,132,421

Previous 5-month low of 5,132,749 was observed on 22 April 2023

View metric:https://t.co/rW81qhwy4d pic.twitter.com/jRJZZreUVb

— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) September 22, 2023

How much are 1,10,100 ETHs worth today?

Selling and coping with losses

Circumstances like this mean that a part of the addresses are letting go of their ETH holdings. The reason for this could be ETH’s recent performance, which has seen the altcoin drop significantly from $2,100. This was the value it hit much earlier in the year.

However, in the last seven days, ETH has been able to resist plunging below $1,500. The coin has also been consolidating between $1,585, and $1,600. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s investor capitalization has decreased to 143.76 billion.

Investor capitalization serves as a bottom indicator during a bear market. Calculated as the difference between the realized cap and Thermocap, the investor capitalization checks out the capital miners get and the market cost basis. 

Usually, bear markets tend to be characterized by shallow downtrends in the investor cap. Hence, the decrease means more ETH are transacted in off-chain exchanges, while new addresses are also coping with losses.

Source: Glassnode

There could be hope for ETH

But how many losses could ETH holders expect in the coming days? While this cannot be accurately predicted, the technical outlook could provide some insights about the altcoin. 

The ETH/USD four-hour chart showed that the altcoin was experiencing a substantial increase in volatility. Based on indications from the Bollinger Bands (BB), ETH could experience significant price swings in the coming days.

Furthermore, the lower band of the BB touched ETH at $1,583, meaning ETH was oversold. Consequently, this resulted in a reversal and pushed the altcoin price to $1,595. As per the Awesome Oscillator (AO), it had fallen to -35.37. 

Negative values of the AO suggest increasing downward momentum, and this was the case with ETH. However, one large green bar appeared on the AO. But the best it could do may be to drive ETH back to $1,600 as there was a glaring scarcity of buyers. 

Source: TradingView

Realistic or not, here’s ETH’s market cap in BTC’s terms

For context, the NUPL is the difference between the realized profit and realized loss while identifying the sentiment participants have. At the time of the writing, the NUPL had shifted into the hope area (orange).

This means that ETH holders have positive expectations about price action.

Source: Glassnode