Analyst claims Bitcoin halving is ‘all hype, no substance’ – Is it?

• Using fundamental data, the analyst noted that the 2024 halving might not be as impactful as the last ones.
• The NVT Signal showed that BTC remains undervalued.

The effect of the Bitcoin [BTC] halving on the coin’s price might be minimal, seasoned trader Peter Brandt noted in a recent post on X.

The analyst’s opinion may have put a nail in the heart of BTC holders. But Brandt backed up his point with reasons. According to him, the Bitcoin halving might come with a lot of hype as expected.

He, however, mentioned that the reduction of supply would ensure that the impact on the BTC price is minimal. Brandt’s opinion came as a surprise to some of his followers who questioned why he moved from his more familiar technical analysis to the fundamental side.

The Bitcoin halving hype is a whole lot of excitement over nothing
Sure, halving hype might temporarily impact price
But the reduction of supply as % of daily volume is the size of a gnat's ass pic.twitter.com/9JWRr12dkt

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 21, 2023

A possible change in the effect

The analyst responded by saying that technical analysis does not stop him from evaluating demand and supply.

For many, Brandt’s conclusion may not be valid. One reason for this is the historical BTC performance post-halving. For instance, after the November 2012 halving, Bitcoin went from $11 to $133 in 2013.

The 2016 having was not any different as BTC rose from $600 to over $4,000 months later. It was also in 2021 that the coin tapped an All-Time High (ATH) above $69,000.

This time, there is also widespread anticipation that the king coin would reach a new ATH after the 2024 halving.

In the last 365 days, BTC’s value has increased by 159.22%, making up for the unfavorable market condition experienced in 2022.

Considering the current circumstances, AMBCrypto checked if the coin has the potential to increase even more. To do this, we considered the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Signal, provided by on-chain intelligence firm Glassnode.

BTC is not at its top

At press time, the NVT signal had dropped to 85.40. The metric uses a 90-day moving average of the Bitcoin volume and transaction to identify market tops or bottoms.

Since the NVT Signal fell from 102.33, it means BTC was not overheated.

Source: Glassnode

Therefore, it could be possible for the coin price to increase before 2023 ends. In the interim, many predictions are putting BTC in the $45,000 to $50,000 region before the year closes.

However, Bitcoin halving is not the only catalyst capable of impacting the BTC price action next year. There is also the potential spot ETF approval.

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If the U.S. SEC approves one of the many ETF applications by January 2024, many believe that it would open the door for a flow of institutional capital into Bitcoin.

This could also influence a surge in the BTC price. So, irrespective of the halving influence, there is a chance for BTC to hit a new high before the four-year event. Whether Brandt’s opinion would come to pass or not, time would tell.