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Analyst says odds of Ethereum ETF in May are ‘down to 35%’ and that means…

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Anticipation for ETH ETF approval wanes as SEC’s silence sparks doubts.

Analyst says odds of ETH ETF in May are "down to 35%" - What now?

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As the crypto community eagerly awaits the approval of Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a concerning silence looms over issuers. The lack of communication from the regulator has raised doubts about the possibility of Ether ETF approvals by May. 

Remarking on the same, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas took to X and noted, 

“Yeah our odds of eth ETF approval by May deadline are down to 35%.”

He further added,

“I get all the reasons they SHOULD approve it (and we personally believe they should) but all the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5mo out for btc spot are not there this time.”

This shed light on the market uncertainty, revealing the downgrade chances of Ether ETF. 

Various influencers with diverging perspectives 

In an interview with Cointelegarpgh, Balchunas elaborated, 

“The main thing is the fact that we’re 73 days from the final deadline, and there’s been no contact or comments from the SEC to the issuers. That’s not a good sign.” 

Moreover, Balchunas highlighted SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s stance on Ether, suggesting it could influence the decision-making process. 

“At the end of the day, Gensler thinks Ether is a security. He would not want to approve it unless he thought it to be a commodity like Bitcoin. All of this little stuff adds up.”

However, Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store also took to X, and expressed his confusion regarding the SEC’s decision, 

“If SEC isn’t engaging w/ prospective issuers on their filings, that’s clearly a negative sign.I’m looking for a logical take on the “why” here.”

Additionally, Matt Corva, the general counsel at ConsenSys, suggested, that the denial of an ETH ETF could yield positive outcomes in the long run. He expressed,

“If ETH goes, they get crushed by their political handlers and they have no arbitrary ground left to battle against other coins — this is a great thing,” 

What lies ahead? 

On 6th March, key industry players like Coinbase and Grayscale held talks with SEC officials regarding rule changes for spot Ether ETFs. Despite initial optimism, analyst Balchunas, echoing insights from VB Capital’s Scott Johnsson, presents a cautious view.

Looking ahead, the U.S. election day stands as a critical juncture for regulatory shifts. While uncertainties persist, Balchunas remains steadfast in his belief in an eventual approval for spot Ether ETFs.

 

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Ishika is a graduate of Political Science from the University of Delhi. From writing content as a hobby to now pursuing it as a professional career, she has been living and breathing content all her life. Her interests lie in making sure articles are very digestible to a common reader, despite all its technicalities and jargons.
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