Analyzing Bitcoin’s retail vs whale dynamics and their effect on the price

• BTC has declined by 1.18% over the past 24 hours.
• Bitcoin’s retail investors’ deposits on Binance surged to 6k BTC, surpassing whale inflows.

Since reaching a new ATH of $109k, nearly two weeks ago, Bitcoin [BTC] has continued to trade sideways.

Over this period, it has remained stuck within the $98k and $107k consolidation range. The recent conditions point towards potential changes in market dynamics.

According to CryptoQuant, this major shift in dynamics has now been observed in whales and retail traders’ behavior.

Bitcoin retail traders outpace whales

The analysis posits that retail traders are outpacing whales on exchange deposits.

Over the past month, retail investors on Binance have significantly increased their BTC deposits, reaching approximately 6,000 BTC.

Source: CryptoQuant

This behavior among retailers reflects fear-driven market conditions, with investors panicking and selling to cash out. Such a trend results in short-term downward pressure.

In contrast, the whale inflows to Binance have declined by a factor of four, now sitting at 1,000 BTC. When whales deposit less on exchanges, it suggests large holders are keeping their BTC off exchanges for the long term. This is a bullish signal.

Source: CryptoQuant

This shows a different market sentiment among retailers and whales, while investors are actively selling, whales are selling less.

What it means for BTC

While increased inflow into exchanges negatively impacts prices, AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests that large holders are actively absorbing selling pressure from retailers.

Source: CryptoQuant

For example, inflow across exchanges remains relatively low, which has declined to a monthly low of 2.33 million. When this drops to such levels, it implies that investors are accumulating more.

As such, those keeping BTC off exchanges are outpacing inflows, signaling increased accumulation.

Source: Bitbo

Additionally, this accumulation trend is confirmed by a declining Stock-to-Flow Ratio (Multiple 463 S/F). Bitcoin’s Multiple 463 S/F has dropped to 0.26 over the past month. A 0.26 Multiple value for BTC implies it is trading at 26% of its projected value.

Historically, this level signals potential accumulation and has preceded strong upswings. For example, in November 2024, it dropped to 0.25, followed by a bull run past $100K.

Simply put, although retail traders are selling more than whales, large holders are absorbing the pressure through active accumulation. 

– Read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025-26

Therefore, with whales actively accumulating, Bitcoin will continue making highs with corrections as retailers sell. 

If these conditions hold, BTC will reclaim $105,500 and attempt $107K. Subsequently, a correction at the current level could see BTC drop to $102,780.