Analyzing the odds of Helium’s [HNT] price falling below its 2024 low

• Selling volume for HNT has spiked above its buying volume in the derivatives market
• HNT could establish a new two-month low as more sellers mount pressure on the altcoin

Helium [HNT] has been in a bearish phase over the past month or so, recording a 20.11% loss on the charts. In fact, market sentiment for HNT has been falling too, with the same coinciding with a hike in selling pressure across the market.

Despite this selling signal, however, there may be slight hope for HNT’s recovery as some market participants begin to shift. For example – In the derivatives market, some groups are gradually opening long positions, while in the spot market, bullish activity could be gaining ground again.

Surge in selling volume

In the derivatives market, selling volume has so far outpaced buying volume. This was evidenced by the Taker Buy-Sell ratio, also known as the Long/Short ratio, dropping to 0.963. When this ratio drops below the threshold of 1, it points to an uptick selling pressure within that timeframe—Typically 24 hours. A ratio above 1 means stronger buying power in the derivatives market.

Now, while selling volume has intensified over the last few weeks, the number of unsettled derivative contracts has fallen by 19.80% to $4.96 million, as measured by Open Interest.

A decline in Open Interest, alongside a drop in volume, typically means a bearish market scenario.

Source: Coinglass

In the spot market, sentiment appeared somewhat different too as the Exchange Netflows have been negative for the past two days. To put it simply, this means that traders are moving their assets to private wallets for long-term holding. Whenever this metric has a positive reading, it is a sign of selling activity.

Approximately $250,000 worth of HNT has been transferred out of exchanges in the last two days – $119,480 the previous day and $130,520 in the last 24 hours.

Source: Coinglass

However, while recent sentiment might offer us some optimism, a broader outlook using weekly data revealed that sellers have retained their dominance. 

Hence, there is good reason behind traders in HNT’s market being cautious.

A trade below $2.85 hinges on buyers

On the price charts, HNT faces the risk of a sharp drop as its price continues to follow a descending trendline, gradually pushing the asset lower.

If selling pressure gains momentum at this level, HNT could fall to its $2.85—its 2024 low, established on 18 June — and possibly drop further, depending on market momentum.

Source: TradingView

However, the decline will depend on the support level at $3.315. If this level holds, it could provide a cushion and prevent further downside. With the altcoin’s funding rate turning positive at press time with a value of 0.0176%, it is a sign that some buying sentiment still exists.