Arbitrum: Is a 40% drop on the way? What to expect as bulls fight for $0.3

• Arbitrum has been in a bearish trend on the 1-week chart since May 2024.
• The downtrend was present on the daily chart too, and a drop below the $0.3 support zone could see a deep reset.

Arbitrum [ARB] was in a downtrend on the higher timeframes. While the rest of the crypto market rallied in November-December 2024, ARB made a 140% surge within a month.

Yet, this was not enough to get the token into a bullish trend.

Source: ARB/USDT on TradingView

Upon examining the weekly chart of ARB, AMBCrypto found that the market structure of Arbitrum has been bearish since March 2024.

The 92.63 million monthly ARB unlock, part of the 3-year linear unlock, saw roughly $27.6 million unlocked on the 16th of June.

These regular unlocks, measuring 0.93% of the max supply, did nothing to ease the bearish pressure.

The $1.19 lower high from May was not breached in November, and a new low was formed in April. This meant the market structure of ARB was bearish on the 1-week chart, the same as it has been for a year.

The RSI showed bearish momentum was prevalent, and the OBV made a new low compared to April, highlighting severe selling pressure.

Do-or-die moment for ARB bulls?

Source: ARB/USDT on TradingView

Alongside the overwhelmingly bearish picture on the weekly chart, the 1-day chart also outlined a bearish structure in play over the past month. The past week saw a line of red candles.

In just eight days, Arbitrum has shed 28%, even though Bitcoin [BTC] continued to trade above the psychological $100k mark.

The OBV underlined the immense selling volume in recent days, forcing the OBV to make a new low.

If the price falls below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.298, it would be likely to descend toward the $0.18 level next.

This was the 123.6% southward extension level. On the way there, it was possible that the $0.265-$0.28 area would act as a demand zone.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion