As Gold weakens, will a positive macro shift take Ethereum to $3K?
Here's what you need to know about van de Poppe's bullish call for ETH.
- ETH could top $3K in Q3, per crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe.
- However, market sentiment was neutral to negative for the summer period.
Ethereum [ETH] may see a relief recovery in the H2 2025 ahead of a likely potential risk-on sentiment. According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, gold topped $3.5K in Q2, capping risk-on markets.
However, he added that with gold (risk-off) dropping towards a range-low of $3.2K, the risk-on markets could be pumped again.
“Gold broke down into the range, therefore likely peaking for the coming 6-12 months, indicating that it’s risk-on time.”
Ethereum’s time to shine?
For perspective, ETH’s 53% surge in May coincided with a risk-off move as gold dropped nearly 10%. At the time, a U.S.-China trade talk diffused the tariff headlines that were a major drag on risk-on markets.
Now that a similar risk-on scenario could be likely after a shaky Israel-Iran ceasefire deal, will ETH climb higher?
Poppe projected that ETH could surge to $3K, and added,
“On top of that; CNH/USD breaking upwards, which is automatically a move that ETH/BTC should go back to 0.026 –> Ethereum to $3,000.”
In Q3, Fed rate expectations will be another key price factor for ETH. In a recent hearing, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that a July inflation print could determine if the regulator will lower the interest rate.
In fact, after Powell’s statement, the odds of a July rate cut surged to 18%. But, at press time, the market was more confident of a Fed rate cut in September, going by the over 70% odds.
Put differently, a potential Fed rate cut in Q3 could further fuel the risk-on sentiment and support Poppe’s $3K price target.
However, despite a bullish skew for Q3, the overall option market sentiment appeared to be neutral to negative per 25 Delta Risk Reversals (25RR).
As of this writing, the risk reversal for July was negative, while August and September were 0 and 0.32, implying a negative to neutral market sentiment into summer.
In the short term, an on-chain resistance lies around the $2.4K-$2.6K price range. A huge chunk of supply was bought at this level and could act as a selling pressure if holders opt to cut their losses.
Overall, the shifting macro environment could favor bulls in Q3. But the typical summer lull may delay the party for ETH bulls, as shown by the Options market sentiment.
