Assessing Bitcoin and the possibility for a full-scale bull run

Bitcoin price has shown no signs of escaping the consolidation that has been ongoing for roughly two months now. This lack of volatility is getting worse with each passing week and as another week comes to an end, investors can expect a minor uptrend but the long-term outlook remains capped at $45,550.

Coiled-up markets rarely rally

Bitcoin price has been stuck trading between $46,000 and $35,000 for roughly two months with no directional bias in sight. Each week BTC rallies quickly but gets rejected and heads down slowly.

Stuck between the daily demand zone ($36,398 to $38,895) and the weekly supply zone ($45,550 to $51,993), Bitcoin price is directionless. To make matters worse, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $40,326 and the 100-day SMA at $42,492 are squeezing the price even more.

A breakout from this range tightening could result in a small move to upside but the move is limited to $45,550. Even if buyers manage to push the price higher, BTC will face the 200-day SMA at $48,550.

Hence, an upside for BTC from a technical standpoint seems unlikely.

Considering the uncertainty in the global markets and the high correlation between the traditional markets and BTC, a crash in the prior will easily be felt by the latter. Therefore, the scenarios in which Bitcoin price will kick-start a bull run is extremely slim.

BTC Perpetual Futures | Source: Tradingview

While things are looking relatively limited for Bitcoin price, the short-term holders’ chart for BTC depicts a potential crack that could potentially propagate and lead to a massive crash. Roughly 2.51 million BTC are being held by investors termed as “short-term holders.” This category of investors is usually looking to take short-term profits and are more likely to sell their stack at the slightest inconvenience.

Often these holders are also nick-named “weak hands.” Since 2.51 million BTC is already being held at a loss by these investors, a flash crash could trigger these investors to sell their holdings to prevent experiencing further losses.

BT Short Term Holders | Source: Glassnode

Therefore, investors need to expect a capitulation event to take place before a stable bottom forms. This move is likely going to be the place where long-term buyers will accumulate, kick-starting another bull run for BTC.

In this case, Bitcoin price will likely make a run for the $60,000 psychological level and eventually scale up to $80,000, where it will set a new high.