Bitcoin has had a roller coaster ride throughout this month. It started off October on a high note, reasonably consolidated in the second week before resuming its uptrend trajectory.
After establishing a new high of $67k on 20 October, Bitcoin’s price has more or less been revolving in the $60k-$63k range. The past few trading sessions have evidently been monotonous and the king-coin has merely appreciated by 0.11% in the past 24-hours.
Well, a stagnated movement at this point comes as no surprise. Prices usually step on the brakes before inching higher – and that’s exactly what’s happening now.
Next, 3rd, 10th, 17th — all the three Sundays of October have sort of been monotonous, less volatile and non-action packed when compared to the other six days of the week. Now, given the fact that today is a Sunday, the on-going non-dramatic movement on the lower timeframe chart makes sense.
Thus, if the weekly tradition is followed this time too, Bitcoin should continue revolving around its current range throughout Sunday.
Metrics cross-confirm the assertion
At this stage, one may argue that the less-dramatic Sunday culture might merely be a coincidence. Well, not exactly. The state of Bitcoin’s metrics confirmed the claim.
The velocity chart, for starters, was non-cluttered at the time of writing. A rally is usually accompanied by steady velocity, while a turbulent landscape paves way for corrections to set in. Given the calm and composed state of this metric, it can be said that the odds of a major pump seem to be highly unlikely.
Another key factor in play remains the BDD or Bitcoin Days Destroyed, that accounts for the estimated transactional volume or “velocity of money” flowing into Bitcoin. Whenever low BDD is pictured, it is a direct indication of HODLing/accumulation. When evaluated at press time, the BDD was no where close to its 27 September high levels, exhibiting signs of hoarding.
Thus, the non-negligent sell-side pressure eliminates the possibility of a weekend crash to a fair extent.
Sunday looks sorted, what about the coming week though?
Well, the week that follows Sunday might end up being quite interesting. From the derivatives point of view, there is a massive options expiry lined-up for 29 October. As per Skew’s data, over 57.4k BTC are set to expire on Friday. Given the fact that this the biggest expiry before the 31 December one, it has the potential to disturb the market’s equilibrium and instigate a change in the monotonous trend.
From the strike price of $60k and above, calls are largely overshadowing the puts. So, if BTC remains in the $60k range or manages to inch even higher, one can expect the call owners to exercise their option of buying their respective Bitcoins. In effect, a buying spree could be triggered and long-green candles could start sprouting on the charts.