Betting against Ethereum ETF: How a May rejection could benefit Bitcoin
Market watcher predicts that BTC stands to gain from a possible spot Ethereum ETF rejection in May.
- Ethereum ETF approval odds have dropped below 25% in Polymarket.
- Vijay Boyapati forecasts ETH ETF May rejection could benefit BTC.
The overall market is leaning toward a possible US spot Ethereum [ETH] ETF applications rejection in May.
According to the prediction markets platform, Polymarket, the bets for ETH ETF May approval have dropped 68% and stood at a 24% chance at press time.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who correctly predicted the US spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETF approval, have echoed Polymarket’s sentiment.
In a recent post on X, Seyffart highlighted SEC’s “silence” and “no feedback” to recent ETH ETF filings as “violence” to clients.
“Eric said “Silence is Violence” on a client call last week in regards to the #ethereum ETFs and I loved it.”
Seyffart was reacting to Balchunas’ statement that SEC wasn’t giving “critical feedback” even during in-person meetings. This meant that odds for May approval were still low.
Will BTC benefit from Ethereum ETF May rejection?
With May fast approaching and approval odds seeming elusive, Vijay Boyapati, commentator and author of “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin,” claimed that,
“All the hot money that flowed into ETH because of ETF hopium is going to go back into Bitcoin once the Ethereum ETFs are all rejected.”
For Boyapati’s prediction to happen, ETH market dominance will need to drop considerably as BTC’s surge.
According to CoinMarketCap, BTC’s market dominance was 52.4% at the time of writing, mainly due to strong ETF flows in the past three months. ETH’s market dominance stood at 16.5%.
Should Boyapati’s thesis be confirmed, ETH market dominance could slip below 16% or 15% as the market re-adjusts to ETH ETF rejection in May. If so, the capital rotation could induce BTC momentum.
In the meantime, ETH was above a crucial weekly bearish order block (3.2K—3.5K). It was consolidating around the Q1 2022 local top. A slump below 3.2K could cause bears to overwhelm the market, especially if ETH ETF applications are rejected.
