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Bitcoin and other altcoins pick up speed again – Is this the end of a bearish market?

Aditya Dey

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Bearish run over, is it a bull run
Source: Wikimedia

It has been a month-long bearish cryptocurrency market ever since it reached a high $835 Billion (market capital) on January 7th. A series of news articles referring to ‘bans’ by different countries created ‘FUD’ (fear, uncertainty and doubt) in a market causing a loss of confidence which led to ‘panic selling’. This came at a time when ‘whales’ were already selling their holdings at an all-time high, causing the market to reach a low of $276 Billion on February 6th. Within this period the cryptocurrency markets lost almost 600 billion dollars.

Confidence has returned to the markets in the past 48 hours after a slow but gradual recovery of $147 billion at press time. If this trend continues for the next three days then it will be confirmed that the bearish market is over and the possibility of a new all-time high opens up.

AMBCrypto’s Aditya spoke to several market veterans regarding the markets and following are the comments from a couple of people.

Jitendra Gaikwad, a Financial Analyst from Bombay Stock Markets, says,

“Understanding the cryptocurrency markets requires you to have sentiments, your traditional asset indicators, RSI, etc won’t give you much result. It has always been driven by sentiment because of it is such a small market. The trends and news in the past 48 hours have been positive so you will definitely see a positive impact.”

Romanov Petrov, a Bitcoin miner from Moscow says,

“There is a definite uptrend, if Bitcoin is able to break the key resistance at $9,300 and $10,600 then we are upwards from there. This would probably be the last time in your life you will be seeing Bitcoin at $8000. If we are not able to climb and break that resistance then a definite slip to $4000 mark is possible”

There have been numerous announcements and technical advancement by various blockchain projects which have played an important role in the recovery of prices, but the positive swing happened with the Senate cryptocurrency hearing in the US.

The following quotes are taken from the US Senate hearing :

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman, Christopher Giancarlo remarked,

 “We owe it to this new generation to respect their enthusiasm for virtual currencies, with a thoughtful and balanced response, and not a dismissive one.”

He further added,

“Virtual currencies mark a paradigm shift in how we think about payments, traditional financial processes, and engaging in economic activity. Ignoring these developments will not make them go away, nor is it a responsible regulatory response.”

Securities and Exchanges Chairman, Jay Clayton commented,

“To be clear, I am very optimistic that developments in financial technology will help facilitate capital formation, providing promising investment opportunities for institutional and Main Street investors alike…. these developments may enable us to better monitor transactions, holdings and obligations (including credit exposures) and other activities and characteristics of our markets, thereby facilitating our regulatory mission, including, importantly, investor protection.”

Giancarlo on the future of cryptocurrencies said,

“Virtual currencies mark a paradigm shift in how we think about payments, traditional financial processes, and engaging in economic activity….. The evolution of these assets, their volatility, and the interest they attract from a rising global millennial population demand serious examination.”

In an environment where the regulators of the world are coming down on cryptocurrencies, a positive attitude from an esteemed organization was exactly what the market needed after China announcing the ban on foreign cryptocurrency exchanges.

Paul Taylor, a blockchain enthusiast from the US says,

“The SEC and CFTC hearing was very positive today that will bring some stability to the market. Blockchain is here to stay and it’s reassuring to see the USA embrace this innovation.”



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Aditya Dey is a full-time member of the AMBCrypto's News Reporting team. He is currently pursuing Economics at O. P Jindal Global University. Researching about Blockchain, its technology, and the cryptocurrency space is his passion. He currently does not hold any value in any cryptocurrency or its projects.

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Bitcoin

A deeper investigation into why Bitcoin, Ethereum and other markets are falling!

Jeevan Thomas

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Market Investigation on why price drops
Source: MaxPixel

AMBCrypto’s reporting team have been digging deeper into the cryptocurrency markets from the last week, interviewing influencers, “whales”, blockchain developers and the crypto community to understand market sentiments and analyze what is making the markets bleed.

For privacy and safety concerns, certain interviewees names won’t be disclosed but their quotes will be represented exactly as they said it. 

After reaching a historical high of almost $20,000 Bitcoin experienced an expected pull back and lost almost 60% of its value before consolidating at a $14,000 price range. The drop from a $14k range to the current $8,000 has taken most investors including veteran investors by surprise.

From the 15th January’ 2018, there have been rumors from multiple forums in the dark web about a possibility of a slump, down to $6000 by February 1st week before prices return to the original consolidation stage at $14K by March 2nd week.

On January 5th, when Bitcoin prices were at $17,000, at a dark web forum which can be accessed through any anonymous browser (like Tor), a forum member by the name Cyberjourno, says,

“Guys, there are big players in play, big institutional players who want to bring the price down to $7000, I know it seems impossible now but these guys handle the media and know how to control the market. For the coming couple of months, guys, stay safe, don’t be scared. Brace for FUD FUD FUD!”

On Jan 5th there were two other comments on multiple forums in the Russian and South Korean social sites that suggested a bigger market manipulation in play. Interpreted and translated versions of the comments read,

“Waiting for US, South Korea, Indian and Thai markets to break negative stories by February, prices to stoop back to $5000. Big market players waiting to invest millions in Bitcoin and smaller crypto counterparts. It’s easy to guess, find the common corporate entity that controls media houses in these countries. Make your connection”

Rupert Dera, a Market Analyst for a top Bank from New York, says,

“We were expecting this to happen. Everyone needs to believe that Bitcoin is fraud, it’s a Ponzi scheme, that’s the only way it used to work. (referring to the market downfall) Now the big ‘whales’ realize that if they have to make money, they have to involve governments and so they did”

John M (pseudo name), an investor in cryptocurrency from 2014, with a total investment portfolio of $23 million in various cryptocurrencies, says,

“Of course market manipulation happens, how else do you think I make money? *laughs* It does not happen only in the crypto markets, it happens all over the world with everything you see. Honestly, since the cryptocurrencies are new and the people who invest in it are what we call ‘bait’, it’s easier to influence the market”

When we asked him about the short-term or long-term prediction of what he thinks will happen, he replies,

“I can’t tell you that, all I can say, wait till Feb is over”

Rajan Maniratnam, a veteran day-trader with a Mathematics degree from Harvard, says,

“Let’s think about what is happening, if cryptocurrencies were to drop to zero, which is the primary fear of a person who is in the ‘panic-selling’ mode, then the blockchain technology won’t take off. Even a country like India who recently said they want to stop ‘illegal activities’ wants to explore the blockchain technology. The only lesson history teaches us is, buy when it dips, sell when it peaks”

Although a lot of countries, especially certain Asian countries are hostile towards cryptocurrencies and criticise trading in them; most of them have already started researching on their own blockchain project and plan to integrate them into the national economy. We also spoke to certain investors who are new in the market to understand the current market sentiment that is in play.

Debbie Khan, a Bitcoin investor who invested earlier this month when Bitcoin was at $15,000, says,

“I’m so scared of what is going to happen, I invested a huge amount of money, basically all my savings into Bitcoin. It’s currently at almost half the value of what I invested. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I might withdraw if it continues to drop below $7000”

Benjamin Tremblay, a professor in Toronto who invested in December when the price was at $12,000, says,

“There is a strong negative force at play, I am currently losing money but I won’t be selling now. Call me naive or stubborn; I honestly don’t understand the technology or how any of it works, I just want to make money. So I’m keeping it, I’m sure at least in the next 12 months prices will go back to where I got it at, I’ll sell then”

Just a sentiment interpretation reveals that Bitcoin might be heading towards a $6000 or lower territory after which a strong rebound is expected when big money starts flowing in.

Note: This will be a 4 news stories long investigation, this article is Part 1
Part 2 is now released. Part 3 and 4 will be released soon.

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