Bitcoin and ‘selected shitcoins’ will rise – Arthur Hayes explains why
Here's why Hayes believes that both an AI bailout and a financial-sector bailout could profit Bitcoin.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has come up with an argument that the AI debt problem is potentially bullish for Bitcoin [BTC], even though the underlying AI slowdown itself could be negative for technology companies.
In his latest essay titled “Safety First,” Hayes argues that slowing AI development could reduce demand for computing power, putting pressure on the huge debt financing AI data centers and infrastructure.
Is weaker AI cash flow actually bad news for crypto?
Hence, he links this debt to private credit and insurance companies, warning that weaker AI cash flows could trigger credit downgrades and expose capital shortfalls in the insurance sector. Such a situation, according to Hayes, branches into two possible government responses.
First being that the US could become a “buyer of last resort” by guaranteeing demand for AI compute and supporting data-center investment, particularly if AI is viewed as strategically important in the competition with China.
Alternatively, if falling AI-related asset values create problems for insurers and other financial institutions, the government could intervene to prevent a broader financial crisis.
Yet, no matter the response, Hayes believes,
Either way, we as Bitcoin holders and crypto investors win.
Why it’s a win-win for Bitcoin?
This is because both scenarios will involve greater government borrowing and monetary expansion.
More government spending and liquidity simply means an increase in the amount of money circulating in financial markets, potentially encouraging investors to move into assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, even though weaker AI demand could hurt technology companies, Hayes views the resulting government response as potentially positive for crypto.
The amount of dollars in the system will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and selected shitcoins will rise in in price.
At the same time, government support for AI infrastructure could create excess computing capacity, eventually making compute cheaper and encouraging greater AI adoption.
AI debt crisis on the rise
This comes after reports showing that AI companies are already responsible for nearly 40% of new long-term investment-grade corporate debt, and their need for financing is expected to grow further.
The estimate from Apollo suggests the AI sector could support more than $2 trillion in additional high-quality debt. However, public bond markets may only be able to absorb less than $1 trillion by 2030 due to concentration and rating limits.
Well, this isn’t the first time Hayes has shed light on this matter. Earlier in May 2026, too, Hayes argued that Bitcoin could eventually reach $126,000, driven by the global AI race between the US and China.
Final Summary
- US could become a “buyer of last resort” by guaranteeing demand for AI compute and supporting data-center investment.
- But even though weaker AI demand could hurt technology companies, it’ll be beneficial for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market.
![Tom Lee’s Bitmine is once again in the news as it added 27,562 additional Ethereum [ETH] to its treasury in the past week ending on the 21st of September. At approximately $2,688 per ETH, that purchase represents roughly $74 million in ETH. Separately, the firm also made a transfer of 12,500 ETH from Kraken, worth about $34.6 million at the stated price, as part of the company’s broader accumulation activity. Source: Arkham Bitmine's impressive ETH stash update With this, Bitmine’s total ETH holdings have reached 5,983,940 ETH, valued at about $16.43 billion, representing approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total available supply of 122.1 million ETH. As updated many times, BitMine has set a goal of the “Alchemy of 5%,” which means it is now very close to that target. That said, besides buying and holding, BitMine is also putting a large portion of its ETH to work through staking. As of the 20th of September, BitMine had staked 5,067,309 ETH, worth roughly $13.6 billion at an ETH price of $2,688. That represents about 85% of the company’s total ETH holdings. Source: Bitmine BitMine said its own staking operations generated a 7-day yield of 2.62% on an annualized basis. Based on its current staking position, the company's annualized staking revenues are now projected at approximately $357 million. In fact, it also estimates that if all of its ETH were eventually fully staked through its MAVAN platform and staking partners, the annualized staking rewards could reach approximately $421 million, assuming the same 2.62% yield. How is ETH acting as a catalyst? Here, Bitmine's Tom Lee has also given enough credit to the price of ETH behind this achievement. Source: Bitmine According to the chart shared by BitMine, ETH had gained approximately 65.2% since the 30th of June, compared with 52.2% for Solana and 36.3% for Bitcoin over the same period. At the same time, Ethereum had also outperformed the S&P 500 by 6,519 basis points during the quarter to date. Remarking on which, Lee added, To us, this massive outperformance of ETH in 3Q26 is viewed as a prelude to a potentially stronger up move in the 4th quarter of 2026. Lee is particularly optimistic about Ethereum’s performance in the Q4, as he argues that ETH’s strong Q3 performance could precede another move higher in Q4. BMNR stock rides the boat At the same time, BitMine’s stock-market activity is also booming, as it was trading at $28.25 at press time, up by 8.84% in a single trading session. This has also pushed BMNR stock to rank 100th among 5,704 U.S.-listed stocks. Source: Bitmine This comes as the company recently replaced its 10-year staking agreement with Ethereum Tower with a new deal with American Validator, reducing the revenue-sharing fee to 1.50% of staking rewards. Final Summary Bitmine’s ETH stack has reached 5,983,940 ETH, representing approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total available supply. Lee's optimistic Q4 outlook for ETH has ignited fresh hopes that Bitmine would soon touch its initiative of Alchemy of 5%.](https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/FI_QB.CN_BITMINE_22-09-2026.webp)
