Bitcoin: Assessing the good, bad, and ugly as BTC ‘Marches’ into April

• Bitcoin’s organic demand has been increasing since spot trading outpaced perpetual trading activity.
• The U.S operation choke 2.0 could impact the April BTC performance.

The crypto market, led by the quarter-reviving Bitcoin [BTC], had a march full of ups and downs in between cynical and optimistic views. Nevertheless, the king coin ended the month with a 21.49% 30-day hike. However, there has been some development around the market propelled by macroeconomic factors and cycle reversal.

How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

As such, the latest Capriole newsletter, put together by Charles Edwards, touched on this aspect. 

Bumps on the pathway to honor

According to the digital asset hedge fund, BTC’s price action has been largely fueled by organic demand. This was because the perpetual dominance has been in a free fall for quite some time.

The metric describes the established ratio of derivatives trading to spot positions. And with the perpetual dominance down, it meant that spot drove appreciation, and the early bull market stages might be here.

Source: Capriole

However, it is important to admit that the ecosystem struggled with regulatory issues and traditional financial problems. 

But it seemed Bitcoin has been able to withstand the heat. As a matter of fact, these challenges helped raise the Short-to-Long-Term Realized Value (SLRV) ribbons. This implied that short-term market activity outpaced the long-term. In Capriole’s words,

“In Q4 2022, the ribbons bottomed at levels comparable to the 2018 lows, and have since gone exponential into Q1 2023. This is another clear sign of a macro shift in Bitcoin adoption.”

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin: Crunches, costs, and revival

Furthermore, the report noted that the current liquidity crisis was just one out of two. And the Bitcoin reaction to the first could be similar to the latter part, especially with regulators and institutions out of the U.S. easing their persecution of the digital asset industry.

Another metric considered to have favored Bitcoin is its production cost. For most of 2022, investments geared toward Bitcoin production were at extreme levels. 

With the end of Q1 here, it means the high costs have outstripped the BTC trading price for more than 365 days. Although this is bad for miners, it serves as confirmation of the coin’s undervalued state.

Source: Capriole

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The quantitative Bitcoin algorithm provider opined that the U.S. operation targeted at legit crypto firms to restore banks’ worthiness could derail BTC’s growth in April. However, the coin has proven to detach itself from macroeconomic factors recently. So, there is a chance that it evades these potential sanctions.

Lastly, April’s potential to replicate the March performance looks blurry. But the present state of affairs aligns with a recovery trend and potential adoption increase.