Bitcoin [BTC], the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, saw a drastic price drop through-out 2018, with the coin even losing over 80 percent of its value since its all-time high. A report released by Adamant Capital listed a few major catalysts that could influence a price drop of the largest coin.
The first reason stated in the report was the hack of exchanges or its failures. The report stated that “experts” were concerned about Bitcoin exchanges as they expect around 20% of the exchanges being compromised to a hack before summer 2020. The report said,
“While cryptocurrency custodians were perceived to be the least risky, our experts still estimated that before the summer of 2020 an industry wide 10-15% of custodians would suffer from loss of funds due to a hack”
The second reason for the slump was stated to be a macro-economic downturn. The report stated that Bitcoin has “relatively” high liquidity, which could be used as a proxy for cash if equity or bond markets were to drop. It said,
“This could lead to a situation similar to the 2008 paradox of the gold price declining by over 30% coinciding with a record high demand for coins and bars […] we don’t see a financial crisis as a long term headwind for Bitcoin, on the contrary […] we believe that Bitcoin is of compelling value for investors looking to diversify their portfolios […]”
The report further listed Bitcoin miners and Mt.Gox to also be one of the main catalysts. Mt. Gox, a defunct Bitcoin exchange that controlled over 70% of Bitcoin transactions, was still undergoing its civil rehabilitation proceedings. The report stated that a significant amount of the Bitcoin that would be redistributed by Mt. Gox to creditors could be sold, thereby influencing the price of the coin. It added, “Finally, a regulatory crackdown should be considered a permanent risk factor, given the disruptive nature of Bitcoin.”
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