Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee spoke about Bitcoin and the bullish indicators it has triggered, during a discussion with Fox Business on April 12. He compared it to the S&P 500, while also attempting to pinpoint Bitcoin’s price for 2019.
Thomas Lee is known for his predictions, with the most famous prediction being that Bitcoin would reach $25,000 during its rallies. However, his prediction didn’t yield results as Bitcoin soon collapsed from its peak. Lee spoke about Bitcoin’s Misery Index and how it created a new all-time high for Bitcoin.
According to Lee, Bitcoin’s Misery Index measures the momentum of Bitcoin based on trading activity and price, and is the percentage of the ratio of winning trades to total trades. It also takes volatility into account to measure a daily score, which is measured on a scale of 0 to 100.
In one of his recent tweets, Lee confirmed that BMI reaching 89 meant that Bitcoin had reached its bottom and that the bull rally had already begun. To be specific, Lee said that Bitcoin’s bear market ended when it reached the $3000 range.
Speaking to Fox Business, Lee added,
“I think that if Bitcoin matches what the S&P 500s have done this year, cause the S&P’s move this year is 2.5 standard deviation, that implies that Bitcoin would be $14,000 this year.”
Lee had previously tweeted about the S&P 500 reaching 2.5 standard deviations on March 17.
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) March 17, 2019
Lee explained that the standard deviation of the S&P 500, Russel small-cap is greater than 2, but that of Bitcoin is -0.26. If Bitcoin pumps by approximately 185%, it will reach its ideal standard deviation, putting its price anywhere between $10,000 and $20,000.
A Twitter user, @gperezgiusti, commented,
“Honest inquiry: does this forecast change if the 3/10 yield curve inverts again and remains that way for more than a couple of weeks?”
Another Twitter user, @JoGiovanni_, commented,
“Wonder what to extrapolate for the $Nasdaq $QQQ 🤔”
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LocalBitcoins see steady trading volume in Russian Ruble following cash-trades exodus
LocalBitcoins, the Finland-based peer to peer cryptocurrency exchange, announced earlier this month that trading in a country’s national fiat currency will be disallowed, leading many in the community to believe that countries not on the frontlines of the digital asset world would be hit the hardest. Three weeks on, some defiant trends have been noticed.
According to CoinDance, the weekly LocalBitcoins chart revealed that the Russian Ruble [RUB] recorded towering volumes, even after the June 1 cash-exodus announcement. With many expecting a drop in volume, other top countries have also seen the absence of an immediate plummet, with Moscow being the stand-out.
The first week of June saw a notable high of RUB 1,174 million in volume owing to the native currency, while the aftershock of the announcement dropped the same down by to RUB 1,104 million by the second week. The next two weeks saw the volume surge back to its May 2019 heights, with the week beginning on June 22 recording a volume of RUB 1,188 million in volume.
On the basis of the above data, Russia is indeed a positive LocalBitcoins market.
The Finnish exchange has also been popular in South America, with its weekly volumes doing exceedingly well in the markets of Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Chile, and Argentina, with Brazil, the only Latin American country left-out.
Buenos Aries saw its weekly volume from the initial weeks of June to mid-June drop from $13.71 million to $10.53 million, following the cash-removal announcement. In terms of the Colombian Peso, CoinDance stated that the number for the same was $9.98 billion towards the close of May 2018, and dropped to $7.16 billion by the first week of June. However, the same has since stabilized to stand at $9.2 billion.
LocalBitcoins began mulling the possibility of phasing out fiat currency trades following its inclusion under the supervision of Finland’s financial watchdog, the Financial Supervisory Authority [FSA] in March 2019. This inclusion was made days after Finnish legislators stated that cryptocurrency-based assets would be given legal status under the law. However, the act will officially come into force later in November 2019.
Additionally, several changes were made to the country’s Anti Money Laundering [AML] laws and Countering Financial Terrorism Act [CTF], which would require the exchange to follow the stated guidelines.
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