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Bitcoin [BTC]: On-chain volume will signal confirmation of bull run as long-term investment holds

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Bitcoin [BTC]: On-chain volume will signal confirmation of bull run as long-term investment holds
Source: Pixabay

With Bitcoin crossing $8,000 and with Consensus bulls on the horizon, BTC’s bullish swing has well and truly begun. From entering the famed Golden Cross to increasing dominance to over 60 percent, the market is in a firm upswing. However, the key question of whether this surge will sustain investor activity remains.

According to Willy Woo, the bull season has manifested by 99 percent. He cites the importance of the 200-day moving average and the price of Bitcoin sustaining the same for a “sizable time,” to the overall likelihood of a bullish swing.

His tweet read,

“In BTC’s 10yr trade history, crossing above the 200 day moving average (blue line) for any sizable time (say 8wks+) has signaled bull season. Even a super conservative trend line support puts us above the 200DMA.
Bull season is now 99%.”

Source: Trading View

Bitcoin broke its 200-day moving average on 2 April, owing to the first inkling of the bull-run. The rise above $5,000 was the cryptocurrency’s highest daily gain since April 2018. Since then, the coin has been consistently trading above the same and it currently stands at 84 percent over its 200MA.

Additionally, a “conservative” support level can be placed at $5,024, which Bitcoin last touched on 16 April. Since then, the coin’s price has risen by 61.22 percent, breaching several resistance levels in the process. The short term support can also be placed at $6,976. However, the same is 16 percent below the current price of Bitcoin.

In order to completely confirm the “bull-run,” Woo suggests that on-chain volume is the key. He believes that this metric is a “proxy to longer term investor activity.” On-chain volume has been rising consistently since February 2019, but has flattened out in the past few weeks.



Source: Twitter

Given the FOMO that has invariably kicked in following the adoption pump by the Gemini twins and Bakkt’s recent announcement, investors are eagerly waiting for an imminent drop to buy the cryptocurrency, acting on FOMO.

Woo claimed that once the price “pulls back,” investors will flock to the market and buy the f*****g dip [BTFD]. He tweeted,

“We’re now awaiting the on-chain volume to climb. On-chain volume is a proxy to longer term investor activity. That’s what I want to see for 100% confirmation.
Look for it after the price pulls back from it’s current exponential climb, as investors BTFD.”





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JP Morgan: Big banks stand corrected as Bitcoin rally past intrinsic value; admits current surge mirrors 2017 rise

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JP Morgan: Big bank stands corrected at Bitcoin rally past intrinsic value; admits current surge mirrors 2017 rise
Source: Pixabay

Big banks are riding a FOMO wave as the Bitcoin bull-run is just beginning. Spearheaded by the changing colors of JP Morgan, which recently forayed into the digital assets world, the banking elite is now suggesting that their initial stance on Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency world might have been off.

A recent chart by JP Morgan shows the current BTC price veer upwards chiding the “intrinsic value” the big bank placed on the virtual currency.

Based on the article by Bloomberg, the price of the coin would reverse towards the end of December 2018 and then make marginal gains until May 2019, all under the $5,000 mark. In reality, the BTC price, after dropping to “rock bottom” at just above $3,100 in early December 2018, edged upwards.

Several spurts of growth were seen in early January and February, prior to a massive April ascendance. On April 2, Bitcoin did away with the bank’s value mode and amassed a daily gain of over 15 percent, fuelling its current rise. Breaking the $5,000 ceiling in the process, which was pegged to remain intact well into May 2019, the king coin is now almost $3,000 ahead of the mark and is not looking to stop.

Source: Bloomberg

It should be noted that JP Morgan’s “intrinsic value” is calculated on the basis of the marginal cost of production, electricity prices, and hash rates. This model does not take into account, at least on absolute terms, the anticipatory effect of the 2020 halving, which, according to a slew of analysts is the behind the price rise.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the MD in the Global Market Strategy team at JP Morgan stated that Bitcoin breaking through its “intrinsic value” showed signs of mirroring its 2017 bull run. He evidenced this move by comparing the pre-December 2017 slump to the one seen prior to the current bullish swing.

The analyst added:

“Over the past few days, the actual price has moved sharply over marginal cost. This divergence between actual and intrinsic values carries some echoes of the spike higher in late 2017, and at the time this divergence was resolved mostly by a reduction in actual prices.”

With the analyst admitting that the imparting of an “intrinsic or fair value” to a cryptocurrency, much less a volatile one like Bitcoin, is a “challenging” ordeal, a mere JP Morgan acknowledgement of a Bitcoin bull-run is a remarkable sign for the digital assets industry, especially given the bank’s and its CEO Jamie Dimon’s Bitcoin-bashing in the past.

Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro attested to the same, adding a key point that JP Morgan failed to take into account in their calculation. He stated:



“Great to see JPM finally admitting that Bitcoin has intrinsic value.
Now wait till they understand that miners who run a surplus tend to begin hording.”

Despite Bitcoin slumping at press time, recording a 1.23 percent decline against the dollar, the prospects look positive. After recording a massive gain on 19 May, briefly surging past $8,000 for the second time in a week, Bitcoin created a High-Low [HL] at $7,100, which many analysts look at with glee.

This HL immediately following last week’s pull-back caused due to post-Consensus bears, a Bitstamp sell-order and market correction showed the king coin’s bullish persistence and can even be a foundation for a $9,000 ascendance, defying any “intrinsic value” expectations.





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