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Bitcoin [BTC] Price Prediction: Cryptocurrency to reach new heights by end of 2021

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Bitcoin [BTC] Price Prediction: Cryptocurrency to reach new heights by end of 2021
Source: Unsplash

Bitcoin’s price is one of the most debated topics in the industry. While some say that Bitcoin is just a fad, others predict the price of Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2020.

Several prominent people in the industry like Mike Novogratz, John McAfee, Tom Lee etc. have their own theory about what the price of Bitcoin will be at a certain point in time.

Predictions So Far

John McAfee, the creator of the famed McAfee anti-virus software and a tech/security expert, made a prediction about the price of Bitcoin on July 17, 2017, that took everyone by surprise. McAfee predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the end of 2020, he quickly adjusted his model and sent out another tweet which read:

“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my d*ck if wrong.”

Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee and Sam Doctor considered the break-even cost that is required to mine Bitcoin and formulated a price prediction,

“We believe the current path of hash power growth supports a BTC price of about $36,000 by 2019 year end, with a $20,000-$64,000 range.”

According to Bloomberg reports on February 14, 2019, Mike Novogratz of the Digital Holdings said, “A small amount of institutional assets is a lot of money,” and that Bitcoin would reach $8,000 in the next 12 months.

Bobby Lee, the co-founder of BTCC (Hong Kong-based Bitcoin exchange), made a bullish Bitcoin prediction. He said that Bitcoin would hit its lowest in 2019, but reach a maximum of $333,000 in 2021. Bob Lee even said that Bitcoin would fall to approximately $43,000 in 2023 and iterated that the market cap of Bitcoin would surpass gold’s 7 trillion dollar mark eventually.

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX exchange, changed his bullish predictions [Bitcoin will reach $50,000 by end of 2019] to Bitcoin hitting as low as $3,000.

Tone Vays, a prominent Bitcoin enthusiast and trader, said that Bitcoin might even see a price that is below $3,000 and that the fall or summer of 2019 could bring the price of Bitcoin to $1,500.

Data prediction

Technical analyses give an apt explanation to price performance in the past and a probability of how the prices would perform in the near future, which is again up to one’s own interpretation.

Golden Cross Theory is one such theory that is circulating the cryptocurrency eco-system. According to the theory, the price candles for Bitcoin are in the same pattern as it were in late 2015, when the last Golden Cross propelled the price to reach an all-time high of ~$20,000.

Source: TradingView

Moreover, the price of Bitcoin after the death cross on April 07, 2014, fell from $446 to $168, which was approximately 62% decrease in price. If Bitcoin were to fall by 62% from the current price [$3,929], the price would reach $2,566; this is where the bull is supposed to happen.

Source: TradingView

The next Golden Cross, as per the technicals, is expected to happen on September 26, 2019.  Assuming history will repeat itself, the price of Bitcoin can be predicted by extrapolating the data already available. After the Golden Cross, the bulls pushed the price from a mere $286.15 to $19,666, which was an increase of 6,772.619%.

To be on the safer side, the assumption is that the price will reflect a minimum of the previous percentage increase, the price of one Bitcoin would reach $176,335.52 by November 16, 2021.

Market Sentiment

Bitcoin has seen some decent rallies considering the bear year of 2018. The cryptocurrency community and Bitcoin enthusiasts are content with the recent rallies and are of the belief that Bitcoin bottomed out on December 15, 2018, when the price of Bitcoin reached $3,122. In addition to this, the community speculated that this could be the beginning of the bull run.

However, a lot of analysts and traders are under the impression that this is a bull trap as there hasn’t been any capitulation among retail traders or users and that only after the capitulation would the bull run begin.

 

Source: Alternative.me

 

Moreover, the crypto fear and greed index shows that it is climbing up, trying to reach an all-time high. The crypto fear and greed index is currently at 63, which is 12 points away from toppling 2018 highs.



Conclusion

Bitcoin [BTC], according to the technicals, is yet to bottom and this could happen before the end of September 2019. The next bull run which might happen at the end of 2019 and early 2020 will take Bitcoin to new highs, making the $20,000 rally a small number.





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Akash is your usual Mechie with an unusual interest in cryptos and day trading, ergo, a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Holds XRP due to peer pressure but otherwise found day trading with what little capital that he owns.

News

JP Morgan: Big banks stand corrected as Bitcoin rally past intrinsic value; admits current surge mirrors 2017 rise

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JP Morgan: Big bank stands corrected at Bitcoin rally past intrinsic value; admits current surge mirrors 2017 rise
Source: Pixabay

Big banks are riding a FOMO wave as the Bitcoin bull-run is just beginning. Spearheaded by the changing colors of JP Morgan, which recently forayed into the digital assets world, the banking elite is now suggesting that their initial stance on Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency world might have been off.

A recent chart by JP Morgan shows the current BTC price veer upwards chiding the “intrinsic value” the big bank placed on the virtual currency.

Based on the article by Bloomberg, the price of the coin would reverse towards the end of December 2018 and then make marginal gains until May 2019, all under the $5,000 mark. In reality, the BTC price, after dropping to “rock bottom” at just above $3,100 in early December 2018, edged upwards.

Several spurts of growth were seen in early January and February, prior to a massive April ascendance. On April 2, Bitcoin did away with the bank’s value mode and amassed a daily gain of over 15 percent, fuelling its current rise. Breaking the $5,000 ceiling in the process, which was pegged to remain intact well into May 2019, the king coin is now almost $3,000 ahead of the mark and is not looking to stop.

Source: Bloomberg

It should be noted that JP Morgan’s “intrinsic value” is calculated on the basis of the marginal cost of production, electricity prices, and hash rates. This model does not take into account, at least on absolute terms, the anticipatory effect of the 2020 halving, which, according to a slew of analysts is the behind the price rise.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the MD in the Global Market Strategy team at JP Morgan stated that Bitcoin breaking through its “intrinsic value” showed signs of mirroring its 2017 bull run. He evidenced this move by comparing the pre-December 2017 slump to the one seen prior to the current bullish swing.

The analyst added:

“Over the past few days, the actual price has moved sharply over marginal cost. This divergence between actual and intrinsic values carries some echoes of the spike higher in late 2017, and at the time this divergence was resolved mostly by a reduction in actual prices.”

With the analyst admitting that the imparting of an “intrinsic or fair value” to a cryptocurrency, much less a volatile one like Bitcoin, is a “challenging” ordeal, a mere JP Morgan acknowledgement of a Bitcoin bull-run is a remarkable sign for the digital assets industry, especially given the bank’s and its CEO Jamie Dimon’s Bitcoin-bashing in the past.

Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro attested to the same, adding a key point that JP Morgan failed to take into account in their calculation. He stated:



“Great to see JPM finally admitting that Bitcoin has intrinsic value.
Now wait till they understand that miners who run a surplus tend to begin hording.”

Despite Bitcoin slumping at press time, recording a 1.23 percent decline against the dollar, the prospects look positive. After recording a massive gain on 19 May, briefly surging past $8,000 for the second time in a week, Bitcoin created a High-Low [HL] at $7,100, which many analysts look at with glee.

This HL immediately following last week’s pull-back caused due to post-Consensus bears, a Bitstamp sell-order and market correction showed the king coin’s bullish persistence and can even be a foundation for a $9,000 ascendance, defying any “intrinsic value” expectations.





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