Charting the course that Bitcoin will take has been an arduous task. With cryptocurrency’s first decade over, the next few years will determine the path Bitcoin will take for the coming century, given the importance of imminent events, claims the co-owner of Bitcoin.org, Cobra.
The pseudonym placed prime importance on the next “3 or 4 years,” that will spell the fate of the king coin and the larger coin market. Despite the surrounding issues of institutional interest, the waves of adoption and governments taking aim at the decentralized currency market, Cobra highlighted two key drivers.
His tweet read,
“The next 3 or 4 years will determine whether Bitcoin will last and thrive for the next 100 years. The halving as well as hitting the limits of the current block sizes bringing scaling back to the forefront with more controversial hard/soft fork proposals. Will be turbulent times.”
From an internal protocol perspective, the Bitcoin.org co-owner stated that halving and block size limit will be key issues on the table.
Bitcoin is set to undergo its third halving in May 2020, which will bring down the mining rewards to 6.25 BTC per block mined. Based on historical analysis, the precursor to the imminent mining is a rise in price, three months to one year prior to the scheduled halving.
Further, CoinMetrics, in their recent study concluded that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving, evidencing the previous two halving cycles. Based on the CoinMetrics chart, this “peak” would manifest in late-2021, well within the period Cobra specified.
The debate around Bitcoin’s block size has been raging for several years now, leading to fault lines within the community. Cobra has often been at loggerheads with several proponents on the issue of BTC’s block size. Bitcoin Cash [BCH] and Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision [BSV] are two notable examples of an increase in the BTC block size leading to hardforks.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Cobra voiced displeasure with “soft forks,” which, in the co-owner’s opinion, is “a hard fork in all but name.”
Earlier in the year, when Luke Dashjr proposed an idea to reduce block size and Bitrefill CCO John Carvalho chimed in with support, Cobra immediately hit back, calling such forks “contentious.”
The effect, in his opinion, would be,
“This will split off from the established consensus, cause massive drama, and damage trust in Bitcoin.”
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Bitcoin will likely be valued at $100,000 with a market cap of over $2 trillion before the end of 2021
The entire cryptocurrency market seems to be on the brighter side of the market since the beginning of the year. A majority of the coins have recorded significant recoveries from their 2018 slump, a period during which most coins lost over 90 percent of their value, when compared to their all-time highs. Among all the coins in the market, Bitcoin [BTC] aka the digital gold, was noted to be making a massive comeback as the coin breached the $11,000 mark after nearly 15 months. The coin however, soon retracted to settle below the $11,000 level.
According to CoinMarketCap, at press time, Bitcoin was trading at $10,887.27 with a market cap of $93.549 billion. The coin recorded a 24-hour trading volume of $20.757 billion for the past 24 hours and saw a massive rise of over 17 percent over the past seven days.
Anthony Pompliano, Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, predicted that the largest digital currency could rise to reach $100,000, before the end of 2021. Pomp added that he was around 70-75 percent confident in this prediction. He stated,
“As I have previously said, making predictions is difficult […] Part of my process as a professional money manager is forming a thesis (price target), identifying a timeline (date), and establishing a confidence level. And then constantly re-evaluating those three aspects of my thought process as I receive new information.”
Pomp however, listed six pointers that have to be understood beforehand. First, this prediction is not an investment advice, and people should do their own research before investing in the digital currency. The second is with respect to Bitcoin’s volatility, with Pomp remarking that since it was a highly volatile market, the coin could witness a significant fall before being valued at $100,000. He stated,
“I anticipate that there will be numerous 20-30% drawdowns from new all-time highs as the asset continues to appreciate in value. These mini-boom/bust cycles should not cause panic, but rather need to be understood as natural market dynamics whenever an asset gains significant value in short periods of time.”
Further, the partner of the investment firm stated that the rise would be driven by several catalysts. This includes institutional adoption, exchange-traded funds and retail product approvals, global instability, governments all across the globe manipulating currencies, markets and economy. He went on to state,
“The market cap of Bitcoin will reach $2+ trillion when Bitcoin is worth $100,000. This is less than 1/3 the market cap of gold and less than 1/40 the global money supply.”
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