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Bitcoin [BTC]: Tom Lee predicts three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s price if it catches a macro tailwind




Bitcoin [BTC]: Tom Lee predicts three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's price if it catches a macro tailwind
Source: Pixabay

Thomas Lee, the Co-founder of Fundstrat, well-known for his Bitcoin price predictions and in-depth understanding of the Bitcoin markets, tweeted about the relationship between emerging markets and the price of Bitcoin. According to his tweet, Bitcoin needed to pump up to $10,000 to $20,000 to catch up to the equities.

Tom Lee tweeted,

“CRYPTO (1/2): earlier this year, we noted the “macro” factors such as rally in risk assets plus USD no longer surging are tailwinds 4 $BTC #bitcoin
Chart shows EM in 2018 pulled down $BTC. Notice especially how #bitcoin tried to diverge in late 2018 but ultimately succumbed”

Source: Twitter | Thomas Lee

According to Tom Lee, the price of Bitcoin was facing tailwinds from rallies in risk assets as well as the US Dollar not surging. If the USD surges, the ratio of BTC/USD pair would be reduced. Tom Lee also elaborated on the relationship between emerging assets [EM] and the price of Bitcoin.

Lee implied that EM pulled the price of Bitcoin down, causing the divergence in the chart attached above. However, EM succumbed and finally crossed the price.

Tom Lee’s tweets on EM and Bitcoin price suggest a correlation between the two. From the assumption, since the EM is above the price and rising, this suggests that Bitcoin is bullish and is facing tailwind.

Lee posted the second part of the thread,

“CRYTPO (2/2): natural question is how much implied upside #bitcoin to “catch up” to macro.
S&P 500+small-cap rally since 12/24 is >2 std dev.
1-std dev for $BTC is +185% gain. “Catching up” to equities implies $10k-$20k.
NOT OUR BASE CASE. Just highlighting macro tailwind.”

Source: Twitter | Thomas Lee

Additionally, the standard deviation of S&P 500, Russel small-cap is greater than 2, but that of Bitcoin is negative 0.26. The standard deviations provided are used to calculate the Z score, which will help compare the rallies of equities, and predict the price of Bitcoin. Further, the calculation of the standard deviations and the Z score were done between December 24, 2018, and January 19, 2019.

According to Lee, Bitcoin needs to pump by approximately 185% to reach its ideal standard deviation. If the coin does so, the price of Bitcoin would be $19,635 if it undergoes the same rally and reaches its standard deviation of 2.04.

Bitcoin would be worth $20,448 if it underwent the same rally as Russel Small-cap and had the standard deviation of 2.16. The price would be $10,078 if BTC underwent the same rally as EM.

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Akash is your usual Mechie with an unusual interest in cryptos and day trading, ergo, a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Holds XRP due to peer pressure but otherwise found day trading with what little capital that he owns.


Bitcoin’s [BTC] dump may have triggered migration of BTCs worth hundreds of millions




Bitcoin's [BTC] dump may have triggered migration of BTCs worth hundreds of millions
Source: Unsplash

Bitcoin dropped by 3.55% over 3 hours, an approximate drop of $200, causing many altcoins to dip by more than 8%. Although it might be a coincidence, thousands of Bitcoins started to migrate from wallets to exchanges, wallets to wallets, and exchanges to wallets.

Whale Alert, a Twitter user, pointed out the same in his tweets. A total of  25,000 BTC were sent in under 20 minutes, in multiples of 5000 BTC each, in a wallet to wallet transaction. Two of these transfers were initiated from an unknown wallet [3BYv2L9zCFYpvRQXakqkVWa7JyRw6Q9ZAm] to two other unknown wallets [3PWNGS2357TnjRX7FpewqR3e3qsWwpFrJH, 3CAF6ZjtJKaHiJixViXncTRwG3N5ss9vn4].

These 5 transfers were worth approximately $140 million. The third transfer took place from multiple wallets to a single wallet [3HuUiXmKN3beQSoM97kWjK1fesWWJvKvaZ].

Additionally, there were two massive transactions that took place two hours after the drop; the first transaction involved 14,999 BTC, while the second involved 11,000 BTC.

The former transaction was sent from two wallets to a single wallet [3GaB3nRWA1PLc3XQkkbpVtFwYYZEuMxD4i], which is the balance of the wallet. The latter transaction was similar to the one mentioned above, as the transaction originated from two wallets.

Another transaction containing 9,000 BTC was transferred from 357R3FeNmySYeHuRfyhFd6nMwzoLDdjfwV to 3NmHmQte2rP8pS54U3B8LPYQKkpG1pFF69. The sender has approximately 9,412 BTC after the transfer, while the recipient has 9,000 BTC.

All of the above transactions were worth approximately $332 million. The massive BTCs transferred could be due to the recent fall in the price. It can also be speculated that BTC whales were securing their profits earned from the shorts.

A Twitter user @Emperor_YZ commented,

“and who say the fee is high, just 30,360 sat ($1.67)🤔 for a $82.37 million transfer …”

Another user, @Omarin0, commented,

“It would have also been 1.67$ for a 1.67$ transfer. 100% fee. How nice”

@Emperor_YZ replied,

“wrong, you can use LN or other layer 2 apps to do small amount payments 😎 for BTC base layer, network security is always top priority, L2 is super cheap and can settle at base layer later”

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