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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrency stumbles haphazardly on the bearish line

Akash Anand

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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrency stumbles haphazardly on the bearish line
Source: Unsplash

The cryptocurrency market has not received any bullish reprieve over the past few weeks, with downtrends being the main cause for concern. This price crash has been reflected by multiple cryptocurrencies on the charts, some even showing similar movements. Bitcoin [BTC], the largest cryptocurrency on the planet, has had a disappointing January, with the instances of the price being over $4,000 being very rare.

1-hour:

The one-hour chart for Bitcoin shows a predominant sideways movement, with the last major trend change being the downtrend. The downtrend brought the prices down from $3,827.9 to $3,652 while the support has been holding at $3,563.6. The immediate resistance for Bitcoin is at $3,827.9.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is right at the zero-line after a massive surge to the top of the graph. This is an indication of the capital coming into the market rising and falling after a time period.

The Awesome Oscillator shows a slight spike on the graph, which points to an increase in market momentum after a lull.

1-day:

Bitcoin’s one-day graph shows an even steeper downtrend, coinciding with the significant drop in value. The downtrend resulted in the price falling to $3,809 while the support is at $3,270.

The Relative Strength Index is near the oversold zone, a sign of the selling pressure being more than the buying pressure.

The Bollinger bands do not indicate any massive outbreaks as the upper band and the lower band are both moving in a parallel fashion.



Conclusion:

The above-mentioned indicators do not paint a good picture for Bitcoin as the bear’s reign seems likely to continue. The CMF, AO, RSI and the Bollinger bands state that the current sideways movement will continue sprinkled with bearish drops.





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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021

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Bitcoin Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
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With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.

A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.

 

CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.

Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.

With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.

The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.

In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.

The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.



Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.

Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.





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