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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Technical Analysis: Market stagnates with arrival of first block’s 10-year anniversary

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Source: Unsplash

Bitcoin is celebrating its 10-year anniversary of the generation of its first block, called the Genesis Block today i.e., January 3, 2019, with prices trading at $3,888 and a 24-hour price change at 1.31%.

Proof-of-Keys is an event that is to take place today, and the community speculates that this could introduce liquidity into the market and propel prices upwards.

The 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin shows $5 billion, of which, ~16% is contributed mainly by BitMex via the trading pair BTC/USD.

1-hour

Source: TradingView

Prices for Bitcoin have started their sideways consolidation trend between the $3,200 to $4,000 range yet again. The one-hour chart shows an uptrend that extends from $3,238 to $3,846, while the downtrend ranges from $4,200 to $3,894.

Bitcoin is being supported at immediate support point, $3,578 and the first immediate resistance point is seen in the range, $3,919 to $3,944, while the subsequent resistance is seen in the range $4,203 to $4,239.

Bollinger Bands show that the prices for Bitcoin are undergoing a squeeze and the prices are falling down, below the simple moving average indicating a sell-off.

The MACD indicator is undergoing a massive bearish crossover to the bottom, while the histogram also shows the same but more accurate depiction.

The Awesome Oscillator shows a decrease in the height of red bars over the zero-line and a possible entry below the line, indicating a bearish crossover for Bitcoin.

1-day

Source: TradingView

The uptrend for Bitcoin in the one-day chart has finally extended enough to be seen in the longer time frames and it extends from $3,184 to $3,691. The downtrend extends from $9,800 to $3,890. The support in this time frame can be seen hanging at $3,183 while resistance points are seen at $7,359 and $8,385.

The Relative Strength Index has struck the 50-line, indicating that the prices are neither over-sold nor over-bought.

The Aroon indicator shows a steady decrease of the uptrend and also a failure of an increase in the strength of the downtrend.

The Chaikin Money Flow paints the same picture as the RSI as the CMF line is at the center indicating that the money influx into the Bitcoin market and the outflux are the same.



Conclusion

The one-hour chart for Bitcoin is showing a negative outlook in the first few days of the new year as indicated by Bollinger Bands, MACD, and AO indicators. The one-day chart shows a rather neutral stance for Bitcoin which is indicated by RSI, Aroon, and the CMF indicators.





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Akash is your usual Mechie with an unusual interest in cryptos and day trading, ergo, a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Holds XRP due to peer pressure but otherwise found day trading with what little capital that he owns.

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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021

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Bitcoin Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
Source: Pixabay

With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.

A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.

 

CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.

Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.

With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.

The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.

In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.

The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.



Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.

Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.





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