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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Technical Analysis: No sign of the bulls in the bear-ridden market

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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Technical Analysis: No sign of the bulls in the bear-ridden market
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Bitcoin’s short-term rally came to a halt and the prices are once again moving in a sideways trend and the price candles are arranged to form a pattern that might break out soon.

The current price of Bitcoin at the time of writing was at $3,556, with a market cap of $63 billion. The 24-hour trade volume of BTC was at $6.1 billion. Most of the trade volume comes from Bitcoin perpetual contracts from BitMEX exchange via trade pair BTC/USD.

1-hour:

The one-hour chart for BTC shows an uptrend that extends from $3,366 to $3,577 while there is no clear downtrend seen for now. The support at $3,366 is holding fine, while the resistance points at $3,564 and $3,577 were being tested at press time.

The Parabolic SAR markers are signifying a bearish trend for BTC prices at the moment. There are no reversal signals being indicated as of now.

The MACD indicator shows a collapsed position, as the MACD and the signal lines are both below the zero lines. The aforementioned lines show the possibility of a crossover soon.

The Relative Strength Index shows a recovering RSI line. The momentum is favoring the sellers and not the buyers.

1-day

The one-day chart shows a clear and dominant downtrend that ranges from $9,800 to $3,613 while there are no signs of an uptrend. BTC prices, in the longer time frames, are bouncing between supports $3,189 and $4,111. The long-term resistance can be seen holding at $7,641.

The Aroon indicator shows exhaustion of the uptrend in play as the green line is falling down. This indicates a change in trend.

The Stochastic indicator shows an ongoing bearish crossover i..e, a bearish pressure on BTC prices.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator has attained equilibrium as it is seen at the 50-line, at the time of writing. This signifies equal money flowing into and out of the market.



Conclusion

The SAR, MACD, and RSI all indicate a bearish momentum in play for BTC prices. The one-day chart for BTC shows a rather neutral to bearish pressure as indicated by Aroon, Stochastic, and CMF indicators.





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Akash is your usual Mechie with an unusual interest in cryptos and day trading, ergo, a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Holds XRP due to peer pressure but otherwise found day trading with what little capital that he owns.

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1 Comment

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  1. Avatar

    Fan Xia

    February 13, 2019 at 3:50 AM

    The entire crypt market is going to zero with only one emerge as successful blockchain. Reasons:
    Bitcoin was designed to be a global ledger, you only need one, just like the world wide web.
    All of the experiments, alt coins derived from Bitcoin. All of them took a path that is no longer legal. Bitcoin was carefully designed to follow all existing regulations hence why it is an immutable chain of digital signatures recorded once, kept forever. This is a requirement by law.
    Finally, Bitcoin is based on economic incentives as the chain scales up, miners compete for lower fees as they are able to accept bigger blocks with more volume for less. None of the other consensus mechanism are based on economic competition. They don’t work, they can’t scale and it cannot compete with Bitcoin on cost.

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Bitcoin [BTC] Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021

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Bitcoin Halving: CoinMetrics pegs top-crypto to rise above $20,000 peak in late-2021
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With a year left for the highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving, many expect the price of the top-cryptocurrency to surge prior to May 2020. Analysts have previously opined that three months to one year before the halving does the price of the cryptocurrency move up.

A new piece of research from the cryptocurrency analytics firm, CoinMetrics, suggested that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin [BTC] will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving.

 

CoinMetrics charts the price of the top coin, divided based on the 2012 and 2016 halving, showing a noticeable trend. A little more than a year after the first halving when the 210,001 block was mined, the price of Bitcoin surged above $1,000 for the first time, in December 2013 to be precise.

Next, During the July 2016 halving, the coin was trading at just above $600 and within the suggested period of 18 months, the top virtual currency saw its second peak. On 17 December, the coin reached a never-before-seen high of over $19,700 as the Chicago Futures exchanges embraced the digital assets market.

With the price of Bitcoin over $5,000 for the first time in over four months, and the precursor halving bulls on the horizon, the price could surge. Furthermore, based on CoinMetrics’ inference, Bitcoin will see its third peak, higher than $20,000, by the close of 2021, eighteen months after the May 2020 halving.

The halving protocol was placed in the original whitepaper to thwart inflationary pressure that would arise with more blocks mined and more Bitcoins supplied. Historical charts prove that this objective has been adhered to, with a constant drop in the inflation rate with the two previous halvings.

In 2012, the inflation was over 25 percent and immediately after the miner reward reduction to 25 BTC per block, it dropped to under 15 percent. A bracket between 7 percent and just under 20 percent sustained until the second halving in July 2016.

The second halving saw a decline in inflation rate to under 5 percent for the first time in the coin’s history, which has been maintained till today. CoinMetrics pegs the inflation, at press time, to be 3.8 percent. Furthermore, if the historic trend continues, the inflation rate would drop by more than 50 percent to 1.8 percent in May 2020.



Based on the current market and using a historical outlook, analysts suggested that 2019 will be the year of building the industry while the price effect will manifest next year, with the halving being at the very core. Many believe that institutional interest on the rise and the growing crypto-adoption surge could result in a bullish 2020.

Charlie Lee, BTCC’s co-founder suggested in December 2018 that Bitcoin’s next rally will begin in “late 2020”, months after the halving and would peak in December 2021 at 333,000. However, the precursor to this rise would be a January 2019 bottom of $2,500 which did not materialize.





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